How Republicans could take the Senate

Former President Donald Trump appointed the three Supreme Court justices who shifted the direction of the court and of law in America, from abortion to affirmative action to the federal power itself.

But it was the U.S. Senate that opened the door for them, and which sat them on the court.

The battle to control the Senate is now every bit as intense as the one for the White House, with several races setting multimillion-dollar records. As part of our series mapping out the 2024 election, let’s take a close look at the fight for the “most exclusive club.”

The basics

Currently, 51 senators are in the working coalition of Democrats and independents. This includes Sens. Angus King of Maine, Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont who caucus with Democrats, as well as Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who does not caucus with Democrats weekly but who votes with them in matters of organizing and determining the Senate majority.

Republicans have 49 senators.

The map: On the ballot this year are 34 Senate seats. Democrats start with a disadvantage. They are defending 23 of those seats. Republicans are defending just 11.

To take over the Senate, Republicans do not need to do much. They need either a net gain of 1 seat if they also win the White House (and with it the ability to break ties), or a net gain of 2 seats if they don’t win the White House.

The key races

Of those 34 Senate seats on the ballot this year, just 11 are considered remotely competitive by the Cook Political Report. Add to that one likely flip and you have 12 key races to watch that will most likely determine the future of the Senate.

Here’s the landscape:

The most likely flip. In West Virginia, Democrat-turned-independent Joe Manchin’s retirement has opened up a seat that almost certainly will flip to Republican. (The Cook Political Report rates this likely a “Solid Republican” seat now, meaning it is nearly a sure thing that the GOP wins it.)

The next most likely flip. Bringing a different set of mountains and a different political problem for Senate Democrats, in Montana, dirt farmer and Sen. Jon Tester is in the political fight of his life. Polls have consistently shown him down seven or eight points behind his opponent, Republican Tim Sheehy.

Two toss-ups. Next, Democrats have to defend two seats that are toss-ups. Those are in Michigan and Ohio.

In Michigan, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin has a small edge at the moment over Republican Rep. Mike Rogers for the seat left open by retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow. Just down Lake Erie, Ohio Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is ahead, just past the margin of error in his race.

Both races depend on how well Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump do in their states.

Five races on Republicans’ wish list. This brings us to five other competitive Senate seats Democrats are defending: Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Maryland.

The first four are all key presidential states as well, where Democrats’ Senate candidates are running ahead of Harris in polling. The fifth state, Maryland, is a deep blue state where an ideal Republican candidate — popular former Gov. Larry Hogan — is getting national interest. But he’s still nearly double-digits behind Democrat Angela Alsobrooks.

Two Democratic pick-up opportunities. Democrats have hopes for some pick-ups as well, with one coming closer in range.

That’s Texas, where polls show Republican Sen. Ted Cruz is right around the margin of error in his race against Democratic Rep. Colin Allred. Democrats are now investing millions into this race.

Democrats are also eyeing Florida, and incumbent Sen. Rick Scott. Polls there are a bit more wide-ranged, but Democrats are considering spending more there, especially given that the state is holding a high-margin ballot initiative in an attempt to enshrine abortion rights.

One unique race that could help Democrats. Finally, let’s talk about Nebraska.

Republican Sen. Deb Fischer is suddenly looking over her shoulder as an nontraditional candidate — newcomer Dan Osborn running as an independent — is gaining on her.

Where does this leave things?

Republicans start with an assumption that they will win the West Virginia Senate race. That’s +1.

If Republicans also flip Montana as well, that’s +2 Senate seats. That is the point at which Republicans take over the Senate regardless of the presidential race.

This puts incredible importance on Montana. If Republicans flip Tester’s seat, it means that Democrats’ only chances of keeping the Senate are narrow and difficult.

Democrats would have to do three things:

• Run the table in the seven other competitive seats they are defending, winning them all.
• Win either Texas or Florida, flipping a Senate seat in a state that has been red in recent years.
• Win the White House, so that they could break a tie.

Sure, Democrats could win in Texas and Florida. And maybe there is a surprise in Nebraska. But right now, all three are long shots.

It comes down to Montana, a race where Republicans are out in front consistently. If Republicans win there, Democrats’ path to keeping the majority exists, but it is a winding and perilous obstacle course.

For Democrats, the hope is to somehow keep the majority.

But for Republicans looking at this map, they see the chance not only to take over the Senate, but to flip several seats and have a few votes to spare.