Population Decline in Pa. Is Happening Faster Than Expected, Data Suggest. Here’s How the State Is Dealing with It

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HARRISBURG — Pennsylvania lawmakers hope a new commission created to encourage people to live in rural areas can stem the population decline happening in those parts of the state, which federal data show is outpacing predictions.

The Center for Rural Pennsylvania, an agency overseen by the state legislature, released 30-year population projections last fall that forecast a 5.8% decline in rural counties. But after reviewing new data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the state’s experts said last week that the decline is happening more rapidly.

Federal estimates show that Pennsylvania had 3.36 million rural residents in 2023. That’s a 0.7% decrease from 2020, the center said in its analysis.

To address the expected losses and help with long-term planning, state lawmakers established the Rural Population Revitalization Commission in June. The legislation creating the commission received bipartisan support and was signed into law by Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro.

The 15-member commission is the brainchild of lawmakers on the Center for Rural Pennsylvania’s Board of Directors, who wanted a formal way to pitch solutions to population decline alongside data.

“We felt that there was a missing piece,” state Rep. Eddie Day Pashinski (D., Luzerne) told Spotlight PA. “After you have all the research, what are the solutions? What kinds of steps do we have to take in order to address those concerns? That’s where the commission comes in.”

The center funds research, awards grants and collects data on Pennsylvania’s rural communities. However, the agency doesn’t make direct policy recommendations. State Sen. Gene Yaw (R., Lycoming), who chairs the center’s board, said this boundary lets the center stay impartial while providing data.

Kyle Kopko, the center’s executive director, told Spotlight PA the agency is a “fact-finding entity” for rural policies, but said the commission will focus solely on population change.

“In addition to doing fact-finding work, they are also supposed to make recommendations in terms of proposed legislation, regulatory change, even best practices,” he said. “And I think that’s a feature that is not really in the purview of the Center for Rural Pennsylvania.”

When the center released its population projections last year, Kopko urged policymakers to use the information to address population loss sooner rather than later. In the months since, rural leaders have stressed that limited access to jobs, housing, health care and other essentials has made it hard to attract new and younger people to these communities, which tend to have older residents.

The County Commissioners Association of Pennsylvania, which will have two representatives on the commission, welcomed the new entity.

“The creation of this commission enables the center to thoroughly evaluate rural community needs, incorporating the essential insights of local government representatives, which counties greatly value,” John Buffone, a CCAP spokesperson, told Spotlight PA.

Members of the voluntary commission have yet to be finalized. Some representatives will come from the state House and Senate, while others will be selected by organizations with knowledge of rural communities and their challenges. Within the first two years of its operation, the commission is expected to release a report that outlines its recommendations. The document will focus on helping rural areas attract and retain people, and include strategies to adjust to population changes.

But Kopko, who will head the commission until members elect a new chair, hopes the body will release some initial suggestions for long-term planning in the first year.

Not everyone is convinced another commission is the answer to addressing population loss.

Eric Epstein, co-founder of the nonpartisan good-government group Rock the Capital, said shrinking population is a statewide issue. The more “efficient and cost-effective solution” would be for the Center for Rural Pennsylvania to recommend policy based on research it already supports, he said.

“I’m under the impression that the rural communities are aggressively represented by their elected officials,” Epstein told Spotlight PA. “If we create this kind of commission for rural areas, do we have to create a similar commission for urban areas?”

The fiscal note attached to the bill estimated the commission would cost $133,500 annually, mainly to fund a staff position. Kopko said that role is unlikely, due to budgetary constraints. The commission is funded through the center, which did not receive more money in the recently passed state budget. Any decisions about hiring additional staff would require board approval, he said.

Yaw, however, doesn’t believe the commission duplicates the center’s existing work. Instead, he believes it addresses a specific problem experienced differently throughout Pennsylvania.

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