Downpours, locally severe storms to return to Midwest and Northeast

Rain and thunderstorms will first expand northward early this week then focus along an advancing cool front from Wednesday to Thursday in the Midwest and Northeast.

While some areas of the Midwest and Northeast will be drenched by downpours, AccuWeather meteorologists say severe thunderstorms will occur at the local level through midweek in the Midwest and into Thursday in the Northeast.

No widespread areas of severe thunderstorms are anticipated in the Northeast and Midwest this week. Still, the period has the potential to be one of the more active stretches of the summer in terms of opportunities of rain in some areas that have received little since late June.

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The worst drought areas will receive some rain this week, including areas from West Virginia and Virginia to portions of Maryland, Delaware, Ohio and southern Pennsylvania.

The most frequent and heaviest downpours will occur in portions of Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania where a general 1-2 inches of rain is anticipated, with local amounts up to 4 inches into Thursday.

Farther to the north and west, there should still be some showers and thunderstorms that can be briefly heavy in some locations, where 0.50 of an inch to 1 inch of rain may fall.

There will be some severe thunderstorms throughout the week, but they are not forecast to be as intense or as widespread as severe weather events earlier in the summer across the region.

Into Monday night, the area at greatest risk to have severe thunderstorms packing strong wind gusts and downpours capable of producing flash flooding will extend from part of southeastern Pennsylvania to much of the North Carolina coast.

"A near-daily zone of severe weather will exist along much of the mid-Atlantic zone through Wednesday, mainly during the afternoon and early evening," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said.

When storms erupt around airports, ground stops and airline delays will likely occur. Since many storms peak later in the day, the afternoon and evening rush hours are most likely to be affected. However, there can be some exceptions where storms erupt earlier in the day or persist through the nighttime hours and into the morning.

The severe weather in this zone will not be widespread but rather occur in part of the area.

"Beginning around midweek, thunderstorms, some severe, will tend to focus along and ahead of a cool front," Douty said.

Even though the air behind the front is not tremendously cooler than the air ahead of it, it does represent a push of drier air that will bring an end to the uptick in storms for parts of the Midwest and, later, the Northeast.

"On Wednesday, heavy, gusty thunderstorms are likely from central Indiana to central and southeastern Michigan and northwestern Ohio," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said. He added that some severe weather could briefly flare up over southwestern Ontario.

As this front approaches the Northeast on Thursday, enough moisture is anticipated to raise the risk of severe thunderstorms in part of the region.

The threat of severe thunderstorm activity, which can cause damaging wind gusts and flash flooding, will extend from eastern upstate New York to much of interior Maine.

At the end of the week, dry air will extend from the Great Lakes region to New England, southward to parts of the Ohio Valley, much of the central Appalachians and the upper part of the mid-Atlantic region.

A zone where at least sporadic shower and thunderstorm activity will continue will extend from portions of Tennessee to southern Virginia on to the south.

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