The hottest new bet? One candidate who Kamala Harris may pick for VP

Most offshore bettors think Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris will pick Josh Shapiro as her vice presidential running mate in the coming days.

The odds on Polymarket, a crypto-trading platform, swung squarely in favor of the 51-year-old Pennsylvania governor on Tuesday. As of Thursday at 8 p.m. EDT, the betting – which legally can't be done in the U.S. – put the likelihood of Harris selecting Shapiro at 70%.

What may be moving the needle for bettors?

◾ Swing state: Pennsylvania, with 19 electoral votes, was one of five states that swung to Joe Biden in 2020 after Donald Trump won them in 2016. The four other states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin.

◾ Battleground tour: Harris begins a four-day, battleground state tour on Tuesday in Philadelphia, and some speculate that sets up as a clear opportunity for Shapiro to join the campaign.

How betting odds have swung to Shapiro this week

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Polymarket isn't the only bookmaker seeing a significant move toward Shapiro. At four other offshore bookmakers , Shapiro is the only candidate on which bettors must risk more than their winnings would net.

Shapiro is VP favorite at several offshore bookmakers

Harris is expected to make her vice presidential pick by Wednesday , the Democratic National Committee's self-imposed deadline to virtually confirm its presidential and vice presidential candidates. Some speculate the pick could come as early as Monday. The Democratic National Convention begins on Aug. 19.

This pattern is very similar to the way the betting market moved just days before the Republican National Convention. On the opening day of the convention, Trump named JD Vance as his running mate , but Vance had been pulling away from the field in the previous week.

How betting odds have swung to Vance in the final week

Who is Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro?

Here’s a quick look at a few pros and cons of Shapiro as Harris' potential running mate.  Read about all of Harris' potential running mates here .

Pros:

◾ Shapiro has the highest gubernatorial rating of any Pennsylvania governor in decades, and he could prove to be important in delivering an electoral victory for Democrats in the must-win swing state.

◾ The 51-year-old has gained national name recognition for his quick response to the 2023 Interstate 95 overpass collapse and, more recently, his leadership after the attempted assassination of Trump at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania.

◾ His experience as the governor of a Rust Belt state and calls for unity after the Trump rally shooting may help Democrats counter Republican messaging that the party is divisive.

Harris' VP options: From Josh Shapiro to Mark Kelly, sizing up the slate's pros and cons

Cons:

◾ Shapiro has led Pennsylvania for two years and is politically inexperienced on the national stage.

◾ Democrats risk the chance that a Republican could take control of the Pennsylvania governor’s mansion if he is picked and goes on to win the White House.

◾ Shapiro isn’t likely to excite the party’s progressive base, especially given his moderate stance on the Israel-Hamas war. Shapiro has not called for a cease-fire but has expressed support for a two-state solution.

Contributing: Ramon Padilla, Karissa Waddick, Joey Garrison , James Powel

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: The hottest new bet? One candidate who Kamala Harris may pick for VP