Up to 10 storms could form in September as we head into peak Atlantic hurricane season

The deluge of tropical storms and hurricanes meteorologists predicted would batter the southern and eastern coasts of the United States hasn't quite materialized as the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season creeps nearer.

That all could change in September as we head into peak hurricane season , according to AccuWeather , which predicts that there will be between six and 10 tropical storms in September. If the forecast holds true, it would be similar to the record-breaking 2020 hurricane season, which had 10 named storms that month.

Here's what to know about AccuWeather's hurricane outlook for September .

Why haven't there been as many storms as predicted in 2024?

That can be chalked up to dry, dusty air brought in by a large Saharan dust plume that blanketed the Atlantic in June and July.

Dust is carried over the Atlantic from Africa every year, but its impacts depend on how much of it is kicked into the atmosphere. Large quantities of dust can inhibit the conditions that are conducive to storm development, which is what happened this year.

That's not always the case, however. Roughly 182 million tons of Saharan dust were carried across the Atlantic Ocean in 2020, which was still a notable year for storms.

The technology meteorologists use to monitor weather has gotten better and helped strengthen their understanding of how it impacts people and their environment. As severe weather continues to increase in both volume and intensity, it's important to make readers aware and keep them informed about potential risks.

AccuWeather's September hurricane outlook

AccuWeather predicts that there will be up to 10 named storms in September, which would be a record month.

"I think things could get very active potentially very quickly here as soon as that dry air goes away," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said, "We could see a parade of storms." This dramatic increase in activity will start at the end of August and persist throughout September.

The Atlantic hurricane season peaks on Sept. 10, but there will be an abundance of warm water that could fuel tropical storms as we head into fall. "We're basically at record-breaking sea surface temperatures across most of the basin," DaSilva said.

AccuWeather predicts October will be a busy month for storms, and even said November could bring one to three storms.

What areas are most at risk for potential storms in September?

DaSilva said that he is concerned about the Texas coast, and mentioned that Florida and the Carolinas are also at an elevated risk of landfall. He says it's not only the storm itself to worry about.

When Hurricane Beryl hit Texas as a Category 1 hurricane, much of the danger was from the tornadoes it spawned. Flooding is also a concern in many areas. Vermont, in particular, saw significant flooding several days and more than a thousand miles from where Beryl made landfall.

"It's been an already been a costly year for hurricane damage and impacts, and we haven't even reached the peak of the season," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said.

Are there any tropical disturbances in the Atlantic now?

The Atlantic Ocean is eerily quiet at the time of publish.

The 8 a.m. Friday, Aug. 23, 2024, tropical weather outlook from the National Hurricane Center in Miami said no tropical cyclone activity is expected over the next seven days. Here's info about the two tropical waves:

• An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave was moving westward.
• A Caribbean Sea tropical wave was moving westward with scattered moderate and isolated strong convection.

Caribbean Sea:

• Moderate to locally fresh winds, and seas of 4 to 6 feet are noted over the central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3 to 4 feet prevail over the western Caribbean.
• For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh east to northeast winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through most of the Caribbean through early next week. Light to gentle winds and slight seas will persist over the northwest Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean:

• A trough extends southwestward to Northeast Florida. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5 to 6 feet are found west of the trough.
• For the forecast, the trough will linger in this area today and dissipate by Saturday. Strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh east to northeast winds and moderate seas will continue over the next few days.

When is the peak of hurricane season?

The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Contributor : Jennifer Sangalang, USA TODAY NETWORK - Florida

This article originally appeared on Pensacola News Journal: Up to 10 storms could form in September as we head into peak Atlantic hurricane season