Tropical disturbance has 40% chance to develop next week. Here's what to know

The National Hurricane Center is tracking a tropical disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean that has a 40% chance for development over the next several days.

Over the past week, the NHC has monitored a handful of tropical waves and disturbances , with most fizzling out without much fuss. Those are, of course, the best kind of tropical waves and disturbances — the ones that die out before having the chance to develop and strengthen into a tropical depression or cyclone .

Understanding what makes a tropical disturbance and what makes a tropical wave can be a bit confusing and can even stir up a bit of early panic when the terms get confused for something they’re not, such as a hurricane.

Here’s what you need to know about the latest tropical disturbance and how it differs from the tropical waves the NHC monitored earlier this week.

Where is the tropical disturbance in the Atlantic?

Right now, the tropical disturbance is pretty far out into the Atlantic. It’s producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it approaches the Lesser Antilles, moving westward at 10 to 15 mph.

It’s expected to continue moving west to west-northwestward across portions of the eastern Caribbean Sea during the middle of next week, where it could become a tropical depression.

Will the tropical disturbance in the Atlantic impact Florida over Labor Day weekend?

It’s not expected to. If the tropical disturbance develops into a depression, it will happen sometime between Saturday and Sunday, but it will still be too far out to impact Florida during that time.

AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva believes the earliest any part of the U.S. could be impacted is next weekend, though a lot can change between now and then.

Are tropical waves and tropical disturbances the same thing?

In a sense, yes. Tropical waves are a type of tropical disturbance. Given the obvious similarities of the terms, it can appear as if both terms are being used interchangeably to describe the same weather phenomenon, but meteorologists do this to specify and more accurately describe the system.

Tropical disturbance is used to describe an area of organized convection (thunderstorms) and low pressure in the tropics. There is usually some rotation at this point, but there’s no well-defined circulation.

It’s easiest to think of a tropical disturbance as a cluster of thunderstorms that has the potential to develop into something more organized if environmental conditions are conducive.

When meteorologists say they are tracking tropical waves, they mean they are monitoring big ripples or waves in the atmosphere, usually over warm ocean water. These waves can produce clouds, rain and storms.

Tropical waves are important to track because 85% of all tropical storm development can be traced back to them, according to AccuWeather.

When does a tropical disturbance become a tropical depression?

Like tropical waves, tropical depressions are just another type of tropical disturbance. Tropical waves become tropical depressions once their circulation has become more defined and it becomes more organized.

When maximum sustained wind speeds meet or exceed 39 mph, the tropical depression becomes a tropical storm.

Where do tropical waves come from?

Here in Florida, we pay attention to the Atlantic hurricane season because that’s where named storms originate. More specifically, tropical waves, which are more scientifically described as areas of low pressure in the atmosphere, tend to form near the African coast before heading westward across the Atlantic Ocean. Tropical waves can form farther away, however.

National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?

This article originally appeared on Pensacola News Journal: Tropical disturbance has 40% chance to develop next week. Here's what to know