A tropical disturbance has a high risk of developing sometime next week in the Gulf of Mexico, according to the National Hurricane Center .
The disturbance has a 40% chance of developing within the next seven days as it moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Southern Gulf of Mexico.
AccuWeather meteorologists warn that Gulf Coast residents should be keeping an eye on the system as it develops over the week as there is a high risk it could target Gulf Coast areas stretching from the Louisiana coast to portions of the Florida Panhandle , according to historical data.
"Typically, the jet stream tends to pull systems to the north and east that enter the Gulf with a higher probability of a direct strike from Louisiana to the Florida west coast versus the Texas coast," said AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Rayno said.
Should the disturbance continue development, Gulf Coast residents will want to keep a close eye on it as forecasters warn that strengthening is often rapid this time of year.
"Historically, a storm moving northward from the Caribbean this time of the year not only strengthens but often rapidly strengthens . Major hurricanes have developed in similar situations in the past," Senior Director of AccuWeather Forecasting Operations Dan DePodwin said.
Here's what to know about the tropical disturbance .
Where is the tropical disturbance now?
The tropical disturbance is a very loose and undeveloped system in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southern Gulf of Mexico. It has expanded north-northwest just a bit, according to the National Hurricane Center’s latest advisory.
Tropical disturbance could become depression by next week
The National Hurricane Center says it is likely the disturbance continues to gradually develop and could form a broad area of low pressure by next week with the potential of becoming a tropical depression through the middle part of next week.
How strong will the tropical disturbance become?
Meteorologists expect that it could become a tropical depression by the middle of next week, but warn of rapid intensification.
There are a few factors into play that would determine how the system develops, according to AccuWeather. First is the Central America gyre, which is a large, slowly spinning area of low pressure that forms in the spring and later in the fall. The gyre makes it easier for storms to develop and cluster.
The jet stream is another key factor. If the jet stream is weak then tropical systems are more likely to veer westward and end up near Texas. A stronger jet stream would pull a system north and east, toward Louisiana and Florida.
Warm waters in the Caribbean and the Gulf are another factor at play. When sea surface temperatures are above 81 degrees, conditions become conducive for storms to develop. Deep, warm water greatly increases the chances of rapid intensification, according to AccuWeather.
Finally, there’s the wind shear, which can prevent or weaken development. Low wind sheer can result in a storm strengthening or maintaining its intensity.
Who should be concerned about the tropical disturbance?
At this point, anyone who lives along the Gulf Coast, from Texas to Northwest Florida, should keep the disturbance on their radar.
What's out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon) : Recent satellite wind data shows that an area of low pressure hasformed in association with the remnants of Gordon. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is poorly organized.
Some additional development of this system is possible during the next day or two while it moves northward or north-northeastward. After that time, conditions are expected to become less conducive for development.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 30 percent
- Formation chance through 7 days: low, 30 percent
Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic: Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure located about 750 miles southeast of Bermuda has changed little in organization over the past several hours.
Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive, but some development of this system is possible while it meanders over the open waters of the central or western Subtropical Atlantic though early next week.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 20 percent
- Formation chance through 7 days: low, 30 percent
This article originally appeared on Pensacola News Journal: The National Hurricane Center is tracking a tropical disturbance in the Gulf. What to know
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