The tropical disturbance slowly forming in the western Caribbean Sea could be limited by a frontal boundary as the National Hurricane Center slightly downgrades its chances of formation through the next seven days to 30%.
But AccuWeather says not to count it out just yet as it believes Tropical Depression Eleven-E could help fuel it.
"Two main pieces of energy will likely combine to spur development in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in the coming days," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "One piece is heading westward from the Caribbean, and the other piece is associated with a tropical depression near Mexico in the eastern Pacific."
If this happens, AccuWeather says that Florida will bear the brunt of it next week.
Here's what to know about the next threat looming in the Gulf of Mexico .
What's happening with Tropical Disturbance 1 in the Gulf?
Not a lot at the moment. The tropical disturbance is a disorganized group of showers and thunderstorms in the Gulf of Mexico associated with a surface trough.
The National Hurricane Center expects a broad area of low pressure to develop late this weekend or early next week but says that on its own, conditions in the Gulf are likely to limit the system's potential.
It's expected to bring locally heavy rains over portions of Mexico during the next few days. By next week, it's expected to do the same over portions of the Florida Peninsula.
How Tropical Disturbance 1 could impact Florida
The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor a tropical development in the western Caribbean Sea that could form into a tropical depression by the weekend.
There is a low (30%) chance of the system developing through the next seven days.
Should Tropical Depression Eleven-E cross Central America, and the system remains disorganized, Florida can prepare for heavy rain starting around Monday night or Tuesday morning.
If Tropical Depression Eleven-E helps the system organize, it could give the system what it needs to further develop. AccuWeather says that a hurricane could be possible around Tuesday or Wednesday in this scenario.
Where is Tropical Depression Eleven-E?
Tropical Depression Eleven-E is about 95 miles east of Puerto Angel, Mexico. Wind speeds are still around 35 mph and it's moving northeast at 7 mph.
The depression is expected to shift to a slightly faster northeastward trajectory through Friday. It's expected to make landfall within the warning area, from Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan, Thursday night or early Friday.
How could Tropical Depression Eleven-E impact Florida?
AccuWeather predicts one scenario where the remnants of Tropical Depression Eleven-E passes over the mountains of Central America and provides enough energy to help Tropical Disturbance 1 organize in the western Caribbean Sea and southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
"Should development take place in the southwestern gulf and move along a narrow east-northeast path toward the Florida Peninsula, there is the time and potential for the feature to strengthen into a tropical storm and hurricane," DaSilva said.
AccuWeather says that the area's warm waters, low wind shear in appropriate areas of the Gulf and a zone of high pressure will prevent the storm from moving toward Texas or the southern Appalachians, effectively steering it toward Florida.
In almost any scenario, Florida is likely to experience torrential downpours next week, specifically around the central and southern parts of the peninsula.
Rainfall will likely be stretched over several days unless a more condensed hurricane forms, according to AccuWeather.
The risk of flooding will ramp up early next week and could last into midweek, depending on the system's intensity and speed. AccuWeather predicts that between several inches to a foot of rainfall could be expected, with the area between Interstate 4 on south to the Florida Keys potentially seeing the heaviest.
Tropical Depression Eleven-E scenarios
AccuWeather is currently predicting two scenarios for Tropical Depression Eleven-E.
Scenario 1 : In the first scenario, the remnants of Tropical Depression Eleven-E remain unorganized as it crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. The development of a hurricane would be pretty unlikely, but it would bring heavy rain to Florida between Monday night and Tuesday.
Scenario 2 : The second scenario involves Tropical Depression Eleven-E organizing. In this scenario, it's possible that the storm would have enough warm waters and time in the Gulf to develop into a hurricane. This would push the timeline back to a potential Tuesday or Wednesday landfall somewhere along Florida's Gulf Coast, bringing damaging winds, flooding and storm surge.
Tropical Depression Eleven-E path
This article originally appeared on Pensacola News Journal: Tropical Depression Eleven-E could help fuel next tropical feature in Gulf
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