Tuesday’s brisk morning temperatures are just a glimpse of what is in store for Floridians over the next few days as a cold front moves into the state , plunging low temperatures into the 40s in many areas.
Incidentally coinciding with the cold front , AccuWeather posted its winter forecast for the year and it’s expected to be a warm one in Florida and the rest of the southern and central United States, thanks in part to the Gulf of Mexico’s warmer water temperatures, which are expected to be higher than historical averages.
Florida’s winter will feel more like an extended fall, according to AccuWeather. Temperatures throughout that swathe of the U.S. could be as high as 3 degrees above the historical average. That’s good news if you’re not a fan of the cold or you’re hoping to save a bit on heating bills this winter.
The bad news? AccuWeather says Gulf Coast residents should be prepared for a heightened risk of severe weather .
Here’s a breakdown of what Florida can expect this winter.
Is Florida expected to have a cold winter?
Florida’s winter will be relatively warm, according to AccuWeather’s forecast. In north Florida, temperatures are expected to be at least three degrees above historic averages. In central Florida, that drops to between 2 to 3 degrees and 1 to 2 degrees in south Florida.
What does La Niña mean for winter in Florida?
La Niña is expected to be weak for most of the winter, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist and Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok. A weaker La Niña means other signals are able to drive weather patterns, which also means there will be more variability throughout the winter.
El Niño and its counterpart La Niña are like a see-saw between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
In the Gulf Coast, La Niña will typically lead to warmer than normal temperatures and dryer conditions.
What will the coldest month in Florida be this winter?
If subfreezing temperatures occur at all in Florida, AccuWeather says they are most likely to happen in February. Still, those temperatures will be milder than what is typically seen.
AccuWeather warns of heightened risk of severe weather this winter
The Gulf Coast will see a relatively dry winter, but AccuWeather warns residents to be prepared for severe weather due to the overall mild conditions and warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico.
“You need to be aware of severe weather in the winter. We’ve seen in the past damaging thunderstorms in December, January, and February,” said Pastelok.
“With mild air masses coming out of the west during the month of January, we could see the potential for severe weather farther north into places like Missouri, Arkansas and Tennessee. As the jet stream dips farther south in February, we could start to see more severe weather in the Gulf coast states with warmer air and warmer waters from the Gulf of Mexico.”
Farmer’s Almanac 2024-2025 winter forecast
If you enjoy indulging in the Farmer’s Almanac, it also published its 2024-2025 winter forecast. The Almanac corroborates AccuWeather’s predictions.
“This winter, temperatures will be up and snowfall down throughout most of the United States,” reports Carol Connare, the Almanac’s editor-in-chief. “While there will still be plenty of chilly temperatures and snow for most slopes, the high heating costs associated with the season shouldn’t hit so hard. We’re predicting a temperate, uneventful winter − potentially a welcome reprieve from the extremes of recent years.”
However, the Almanac diverges from precipitation predictions. Instead, it predicts that “winter rainstorms” will leave Florida, the Deep South and southern California “soaked.”
Does it snow in Florida?
No, but sometimes yes.
Florida doesn’t normally experience snow, but the FSU’s Climate Center has traced more than 80 months since 1886 where there has been at least a trace amount of snow reported somewhere in the state.
Perhaps the most notable record of snowfall in Florida happened as the result of the 1993 “superstorm," which produced up to four inches of snow along the Florida Panhandle.
It most recently snowed in Florida in January 2022 in the early morning hours across Walton County in the Florida Panhandle. Snow flurries and fleet have also been recently reported.
When does Daylight Saving Time end?
Daylight Saving Time officially ends on Sunday, Nov. 3. Clocks will "fall back" an hour in most but not all American territories and states.
When does winter officially start?
"Officially" depends on who you ask. The winter solstice will be observed on Dec. 21, at 3:19 a.m. Meteorological winter begins on Dec. 1.
What is the darkest day of the year?
The darkest day of the year coincides with the winter solstice, which lands on Dec. 21.
This article originally appeared on Pensacola News Journal: Florida's winter forecast: Expect warm, dry winter with heightened risk of severe weather
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