NOAA hurricane center tracks 2 tropical waves in Atlantic, Hurricane Kristy heads west

While the National Hurricane Center is busy tracking Hurricane Kristy in the Pacific, it's still keeping its eye on the Atlantic basin as it monitors two tropical waves.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season won't officially wrap up until Nov. 30, leaving plenty of room for another storm to form as conditions in the Caribbean and Atlantic remain conducive.

In fact, AccuWeather predicts that we could see a tropical system capable of becoming Tropical Storm Patty by the middle or latter of next week.

"We suspect there will be another attempt for a tropical depression or tropical storm to brew in the western Caribbean during the middle to the latter part of next week," says AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno. "As a result, we have issued an advanced risk development zone."

Here's the latest tropical activity in the Atlantic basin.

The National Hurricane Center is tracking two tropical waves

The National Hurricane Center is still tracking two tropical waves in the Atlantic basin, but there isn't much happening with them so far.

One of the tropical waves is located near 51W from 15N southward in the central Atlantic. It's moving westward at about 10 to 15 knots. There's no significant convection happening right now.

The other tropical wave is located south of the Mona Passage in the eastern Caribbean. It's moving westward around 10 knots. No significant convection has been measured from the wave.

What are tropical waves?

Tropical waves are a type of tropical disturbance. The term essentially describes what are big ripples or waves in the atmosphere, usually over warm ocean water. These waves can produce clouds, rain and storms.

Tropical waves are important to track because 85% of all tropical storm development can be traced back to them, according to AccuWeather.

Tropical disturbances are somewhat of a step up from a wave. The term is used to describe an area of organized convection (thunderstorms) and low pressure in the tropics.

It's easiest to think of a tropical disturbance as a cluster of thunderstorms that has the potential to develop into something more organized if environmental conditions are conducive.

A system capable of developing Tropical Storm Patty could be a week away

AccuWeather suspects that a new system capable of spawning a tropical depression or tropical storm could develop during the middle to the latter part of next week, based on current conditions in the Caribbean Sea and historical data.

Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico have started to move back toward average, but they remain warm overall. Meanwhile, the Atlantic is still experiencing deep ocean warmth over prime development areas that are well above the historical average, according to AccuWeather.

Warm water temperatures coupled with low wind shear that could otherwise inhibit tropical developments could only fuel them.

AccuWeather warns that another large storm or gyre could again form near the western Caribbean, where hurricanes Helene and Milton originated. However, any potential development would be slow and look similar to Hurricane Oscar and Tropical Storm Nadine.

Would Tropical Storm Patty impact Florida?

There isn't enough information for meteorologists to say one way or the other. However, current conditions in the area and historical data can give them a glimpse of what could shake out.

Tropical storms that form late in the Atlantic hurricane season tend to veer into Central America, like Nadine, or head north-northeast toward Cuba, Hispaniola and the Bahamas, according to AccuWeather.

Determining the path Tropical Storm Patty could take would require knowing where it forms, its intensity and other non-tropical features in the area that would influence its movement.

What else is happening in the Gulf of Mexico?

An elongated area of high atmospheric pressure, referred to as a surface ridge, was observed in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. It extends down to a slightly lower high-pressure area near Veracruz, Mexico.

The areas are producing winds at moderate speeds from the northeast across the east-central, southeastern, and south-central Gulf of Mexico, as well as the eastern Bay of Campeche. This results in sea heights of 4 to 6 feet in these areas.

In the rest of the Gulf, winds are gentle and vary from north to east to southeast, with calmer seas ranging from 1 to 3 feet.

A stronger high-pressure system is expected to build over the eastern U.S. by Friday night, which will bring stronger winds along the southeastern Gulf, causing sea heights to rise into early next week.

What else is happening in the Caribbean Sea?

The tropical wave currently south of the Mona Passage is expected to move across the central Caribbean Thursday evening and across the western Caribbean through Saturday.

A second tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean early Thursday evening into Friday. It, too, will move across the central Caribbean through Saturday and into the western Caribbean by Sunday.

When is the Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

This article originally appeared on Pensacola News Journal: NOAA hurricane center tracks 2 tropical waves in Atlantic, Hurricane Kristy heads west