Tropical Storm Patty could form in late October early November, as NHC tracks 3 waves

The Atlantic basin has been relatively calm in the weeks since Hurricane Milton made landfall on Florida's western coast as a Category 3 storm, but a new tropical threat could be just around the corner.

As the National Hurricane Center keeps its eyes on three tropical waves in the basin, AccuWeather predicts that the Central American Gyre could once again help spin up a tropical depression or tropical storm during late October and early November.

Tropical Storm Patty would be the next named storm.

Florida's winter forecast: Expect warm, dry winter with heightened risk of severe weather

"As we move later into the tropical season, we typically look closer to home for tropical development. The areas of concern are typically focused in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and off the Southeast coast of the United States," AccuWeather Lead Expert Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva said.

As always, Florida residents and anyone living in the Caribbean, Mexico and southeastern U.S. should continue to monitor the latest news from the tropics.

The National Hurricane Center is tracking three tropical waves

The National Hurricane Center is now tracking three tropical waves in the Atlantic basin, but none have notable convection, which is the process that essentially fuels the creation of thunderstorms.

One of the tropical waves is just east of the Windward Islands, extending south of 15N with axis near 58W. It's moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. There is no significant convection associated with it so far.

Another tropical wave is located in the central Caribbean, extending south of 18N with an axis near 74W. It's moving westward around 10 knots. No significant convection has been measured from the wave.

The latest tropical wave came off the coast of Africa Friday morning. It extends from 08N to 19N. Its axis is just east of the Cape Verde Islands, near 18W. It's moving between 5 and 10 knots.

What are tropical waves?

Tropical waves are a type of tropical disturbance. The term essentially describes what are big ripples or waves in the atmosphere, usually over warm ocean water. These waves can produce clouds, rain and storms.

Tropical waves are important to track because 85% of all tropical storm development can be traced back to them, according to AccuWeather.

Tropical disturbances are somewhat of a step up from a wave. The term is used to describe an area of organized convection (thunderstorms) and low pressure in the tropics.

It's easiest to think of a tropical disturbance as a cluster of thunderstorms that has the potential to develop into something more organized if environmental conditions are conducive.

A system capable of developing Tropical Storm Patty could form in late October and early November

AccuWeather predicts that a tropical depression or tropical storm could form in late October and early November based on current conditions in the Caribbean Sea and historical data.

Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico have started to move back toward average, but they remain warm overall. Meanwhile, the Atlantic is still experiencing deep ocean warmth over prime development areas that are well above the historical average, according to AccuWeather.

"I know there will be showers and thunderstorms in this zone next week. The question is the wind shear. If there is low wind shear, which we expect, I think we will be getting a tropical depression or storm to form," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.

Warm water temperatures coupled with low wind shear that could otherwise inhibit tropical developments could only fuel them.

The area in question is the same that spawned hurricanes Helene and Milton, but any potential development now would be slow and look similar to Hurricane Oscar and Tropical Storm Nadine.

Would Tropical Storm Patty impact Florida?

It's not impossible that a storm could impact Florida, but there isn't enough information to say just yet.

Tropical storms that form late in the Atlantic hurricane season tend to veer into Central America, like Nadine, or head north-northeast toward Cuba, Hispaniola and the Bahamas, according to AccuWeather.

Determining the path Tropical Storm Patty could take would require knowing where it forms, its intensity and other non-tropical features in the area that would influence its movement.

What and where is the Central American Gyre?

The Central American Gyre is basically a large area of low pressure that swirls over Central America with a lifespan similar to the Atlantic hurricane season. The gyre typically forms in the spring and ends in November.

The gyre can span hundreds of miles and has significant impact on weather patterns in the area, bringing torrential rains, flooding and mudslides to Central America.

Its impacts have widespread, however. The gyre can help fuel tropical cyclone development in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and even the eastern Pacific.

What else is happening in the Gulf of Mexico?

An elongated area of high atmospheric pressure, referred to as a surface ridge, is sitting just south of the Florida Panhandle. It's creating easterly winds in the southeastern part of the Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Northeasterly are blowing in the Bay of Campeche, in the southern Gulf of Mexico.

The winds are generally light to moderate. Winds are light throughout the rest of the Gulf and the seas are relatively calm.

Winds will begin to pick up Saturday evening in the eastern part of the Gulf, which will experience stronger winds through the next several days.

What else is happening in the Caribbean Sea?

The Caribbean is seeing some impact from the tropical waves in the area, which are causing strong trade winds in the central Caribbean and slight to moderate conditions in the eastern and northwestern Caribbean.

Those conditions will change over the next few days as the tropical waves move through the area. Winds will be strong initially but wane by early next week.

The first tropical wave will move across the western Caribbean Friday through Saturday, leaving the area Saturday evening. The second tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean on Friday and reach the central Caribbean by Saturday.

When is the Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

This article originally appeared on Pensacola News Journal: Tropical Storm Patty could form in late October early November, as NHC tracks 3 waves