Political observer weighs Northern Michigan voter strategy as fall campaign intensifies

GAYLORD — Traditionally, observers have said that the campaign season begins in earnest after Labor Day. While not necessarily true anymore, this remains a good time to take stock of the federal and state political races that will be decided by voters on Nov. 5.

Although the Democratic Party is fielding competitors in most races, Republican Party hopefuls are the early favorites in the region, according to Scott LaDeur, a professor of political science at North Central Michigan College.

The battle for the first congressional district, which includes Northern Michigan and the Upper Peninsula, will feature a newcomer, Democrat Callie Barr, against Republican incumbent Jack Bergman.

Barr, a Traverse City attorney, defeated fellow Democrat Bob Lorinser in the August primary by 17% to take on Bergman of Watersmeet, who easily dispatched GOP challenger Josh Saul.

LaDeur noted that Barr is "fairly well known and financed. She also represents a new face as opposed to Lorinser, who challenged Bergman two years ago."

"Callie Barr presents a lot of contrasts for Bergman in the sense that Bergman is elderly and Barr is a younger candidate and there are of course the gender differences," LaDeur added. "The race presents these natural contrasts, which provides voters with real choices. Barr's victory over Lorinser wasn't necessarily surprising, but her margin was impressive."

Turnout will be critical for Barr, noted LaDeur.

"The more motivated Democratic Party voters in the First District are to vote, the better for Callie Barr. If (Democratic Party presidential nominee) Kamala Harris can win over more independents than Donald Trump, the better it is for Barr. However, it is still Jack Bergman's race to lose," he said, adding that the district remains a GOP stronghold.

State House of Representatives

Although there will be Democratic Party competition in the 105th, 106th and 107th state house districts, those candidates face long odds against their Republican opponents, according to LaDeur.

In the 105th district, which includes Gaylord and Otsego County, Republican incumbent Ken Borton is facing Democrat James Wojey of Roscommon. The 106th district, which includes the city of Cheboygan and Cheboygan County, has GOP incumbent Cam Cavitt against Democrat Trina Borenstein of Greenbush. The 107th district, which runs from Charlevoix up to Sault Ste. Marie in the Upper Peninsula, will pit Democrat Jodi Decker against Republican Parker Fairbairn.

Borton and Cavitt easily outdistanced GOP opponents in the August primary while Fairbairn defeated Republican incumbent Neil Friske.

"The (105 and 106) districts are reliable Republican districts. Neither Borton or Cavitt has faced any serious electoral peril," LaDeur said.

He thinks both are likely to win again in November.

"God bless the challengers who run against (Borton and Cavitt) to give the voters a choice. But those will be hard races for Democrats to win," he said.

The 107th district represents an open seat as Fairbairn topped Friske in the primary.

"Open seats in which there is no incumbent are inherently less predictable and somewhat easier for the minority party to win. That being said, it is still another reliable GOP district. Parker Fairbairn's last name is well known and he ran against Friske two years ago. Decker is from Sault Ste. Marie and she also challenged Friske two years ago. The race still starts with an advantage for Fairbairn," LaDeur said.

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U.S. Senate

Meanwhile, U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D, Holly) is facing former Republican congressman Mike Rogers to succeed retiring U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow, a Democrat.

"If you are Elissa Slotkin, you are looking to maximize your vote share in Democratic areas like Marquette and Traverse City (in Northern Michigan). The model for Slotkin is Gretchen Whitmer's 2022 race for governor where she ramps up votes in Traverse City and Marquette and loses by less in other Northern Michigan areas. The goal is to not lose those areas by 15%, but by 10% or less," said LaDeur.

He said Rogers needs to get the independents or Republicans in Northern Michigan not sold on Trump to vote for him.

— Contact Paul Welitzkin at pwelitzkin@gaylordheraldtimes.com .

This article originally appeared on The Petoskey News-Review: Political observer weighs Northern Michigan voter strategy as fall campaign intensifies