Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

The Miami Marlins (28-52) take on the Philadelphia Phillies (53-27) Thursday in the opener of a 4-game set at Citizens Bank Park at 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 2-1

The Fish dropped 2 of 3 to the Kansas City Royals this week, and they scored just 4 runs in the 3-game set. The Marlins are 29th in baseball with just 3.5 runs per game and 26th with a 4.58 ERA as the wheels continue to fall off.

The Phillies have won 4 of 5 games after going 2-1 against the Detroit Tigers this week. The loss was against emerging stud RHP Tarik Skubal, who led the way to a 4-1 victory. Other than that, the Phils scored 6, 8, 4 and 12 runs during the stretch. 1B Bryce Harper is hitting .500 (13-for-26) with 3 HR and 9 RBIs over the last 7 days.

Marlins at Phillies projected starters

LHP Trevor Rogers vs. RHP Zack Wheeler

Rogers (1-8, 4.90 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.55 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 in 75 1/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K Friday against Seattle Mariners
• Last 5 starts vs. Phillies: 0-4, 9.58 ERA, 2.03 WHIP, 20 K in 20 2/3 IP

Wheeler (9-4, 2.73 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 0.96 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 99 IP.

• Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 8 K Saturday against Arizona Diamondbacks
• Last 5 starts vs. Miami: 1-0, 4.18 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 27 K in 28 IP

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Marlins at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:41 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Marlins +240 (bet $110 to win $240) | Phillies -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +2.5 (-135) | Phillies -2.5 (+115)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Marlins at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 6, Marlins 1

The Phillies are rightfully massive favorites in this one, and there’s no chance we can risk 3:1 for them to win.

Instead, let’s go with BRYCE HARPER OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI (-130).

Worried about him facing a lefty? He’s hitting .312 against them as opposed to .301 against righties. He’s also a .338 hitter at home vs. .264 on the road.

No thanks to the 3-run requirement to cash a Phils RL Thursday. Instead I’m going with ZACK WHEELER UNDER 7.5 K’s (-165).

Yes, the Marlins swing at everything, but 8 K’s is a lot for him. He has done it just twice in his last 8 GS, and he has fewer than 8 K’s in his last 4 GS against Miami.

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It’s expected to be 84 degrees with a 9-mph gust blowing in from left-center. Both teams are 4-6 O/U in their last 10. Wheeler has allowed more than 2 ER just once in his last 7 starts. I think this one stays UNDER 8 (-115).

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