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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions
By Nathan Beighle,
5 hours ago
The Atlanta Braves (47-38) welcome the Philadelphia Phillies (57-30) to Truist Park Friday to open a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 7:20 p.m. ET (Apple TV). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Braves lead 2-1
The Phillies lost to the Chicago Cubs 10-2 Thursday, closing as -119 road favorites. They won 2 of 3 in that series and are 5-4 straight up over their last 9 games. The Phillies are 24-16 in road games. Philadelphia, which is 47-40 against the spread (ATS) on the season, is 2-2 ATS in its last 4 games.
The Braves are also coming off a loss, dropping the finale of a 3-game series 4-2 against the San Francisco Giants Thursday. Atlanta has lost 3 of its last 4 games and 5 of its last 8. It is still among the best home teams in the majors at 27-16. The Braves are 39-46 ATS this season.
The Phillies beat the Braves 3-1 in last year’s NLDS.
Phillies at Braves projected starters
RHP Aaron Nola vs. LHP Max Fried
Nola (9-4, 3.43 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 107 2/3 innings.
Last start: Loss, 6 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 9 K in 3-2 home setback to Miami Marlins Saturday
2024 away splits: 5-1, 3.18 ERA (45 1/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.10 WHIP, 4 HR, 7.5 K/9 in 7 starts
2024 vs. Braves: 0-1, 12.46 ERA (4 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 11 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 1 start, a 12-4 home loss March 30
Career vs. Braves (regular season): 15-11, 3.58 ERA (211 IP, 84 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 8.8 K/9 in 34 starts
Fried (7-3, 2.91 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 96 innings.
Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 4 K in 2-1 home win in 10 innings over Pittsburgh Pirates Saturday
2024 home splits: 2-1, 2.92 ERA (37 IP, 12 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 1 HR, 7.1 K/9 in 6 starts
2024 vs. Phillies: 0-0, 40.50 ERA (2/3 IP, 3 ER), 2 H, 3 BB, 1 K in 1 start, a 12-4 road win March 30
Career vs. Phillies (regular season): 4-4, 3.92 ERA (80 1/3 IP, 35 ER), 1.41 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 in 14 starts and 6 relief appearances
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Moneyline (ML): Phillies +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Braves -142 (bet $142 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Phillies +1.5 (-188) | Braves -1.5 (+155)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Phillies at Braves picks and predictions
Prediction
Braves 4, Phillies 2
BET BRAVES (-142).
The Braves have been virtually unbeatable at home with Fried on the mound. They are 5-1 in his home starts. Atlanta is 27-16 as a home favorite this season. Despite a recent slump, it has won 3 straight Fried starts and allowed just 1 run in each of those games.
The Phillies are 4-3 over their last 7, but 2 of those losses came at home against the Miami Marlins (the worst team in the NL East), one of which came with Nola starting. Both teams have strong options on the mound, but the Braves are the better play here.
Back BRAVES (-142).
PASS.
The Phillies are too expensive as run-line underdogs here, while the Braves are too risky as run-line favorites, especially with this set to be a low-scoring game.
Avoid the run line here.
BET UNDER 7.5 (-105).
The pitching will be too good, and the trends support the Under as well. The Braves have gone Under in Fried’s last 4 starts and are 0-7-1 O/U in their last 8 games. They are 30-51-4 O/U on the season.
The Phillies are 1-2 O/U in Nola’s last 3 starts and 39-43-5 O/U on the season. They have scored 2 or fewer in 3 of their last 7 as well. Against an ace like Fried, expect them to struggle.
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