Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

The Philadelphia Phillies (63-37) and Minnesota Twins (55-44) meet Tuesday for game 2 of a 3-game series. First pitch from Target Field is set for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Minnesota leads 1-0

Minnesota routed Philadelphia 7-2 Monday, covering as a -103 pick-’em at home. SP Bailey Ober was the winning pitcher despite serving up a 2-run homer to 1B Bryce Harper in the 1st inning. Ober recovered and didn’t allow another run, finishing with a stat line of 7 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 4 K.

The Twins outhit the Phillies 12-4. LF Manuel Margot (2 for 5) and SS Willi Castro (1 for 4) knocked in 2 runs apiece, while 1B Carlos Santana (2 for 4) and RF Max Kepler (2 for 3) each had 1 RBI and 2B Edouard Julien scored on a wild pitch.

Monday’s win ended a 3-game losing streak for Minnesota, while Philly fell to 1-3 since the All-Star break.

Phillies at Twins projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Simeon Woods Richardson

Wheeler (10-4, 2.70 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 0.99 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 through 116 2/3 innings.

• Last start: Win, 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 10-1 home victory vs. Los Angeles Dodgers July 9
• Never faced Twins before

Woods Richardson (3-1, 3.51 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 through 82 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 4-2 win at San Francisco Giants July 13
• Never faced Phillies before

Who’s going yard ? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Phillies at Twins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook ; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:39 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML) : Phillies -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Twins +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS) : Phillies -1.5 (+105) | Twins +1.5 (-125)
• Over/Under (O/U) : 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Phillies at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Twins 6, Phillies 4

Moneyline

LEAN TWINS (+ 140 ).

Minnesota enters as the slightly hotter team, being 3-2 in its last 5 home games. The Twins are also 3-0 in their last 3 games vs. the Phillies, dating back to last August — Minnesota is 6-4 in its last 10 contests in the head-to-head series, including 3-1 in the last 4 matchups at home, dating back to 2016.

This is only lean because Philadelphia is the better team, but there’s solid value in the plus-money (+140) for Minnesota.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

I like the Twins to cover as +1.5 (-125) underdogs, but the odds (juice) are safer on the moneyline as they have only finished within 1 run of the Phillies in 1 of their last 4 losses to Philly.

Plus, the Twins are only 46-53 ATS this season, according to Teamrankings.com; Philly is 52-48 ATS.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 8 (- 105 ).

The Over has hit in each of Minnesota’s last 3 games and is 50-47-2 for the Twins this season. For Philly, the Over is 4-2 in its last 6 games.

The Over has also hit in each of the last 4 Philadelphia-Minnesota matchups in Minnesota and is 6-3-1 in the last 10 overall.

This is a very slight lean because the Over is 5-5 in both Philly’s and Minnesota’s last 10 games overall and because the Under is 50-45-5 for the Phillies this year.

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