New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

The Philadelphia Phillies (65-40) welcome the New York Yankees (62-45) to Citizens Bank Park Monday. First pitch to commence the 3-game series is set for 6:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network/Prime Video). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Yankees vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Yankees won 2-1 last season

The Phillies have lost 4 straight series after dropping a rubber match to the Cleveland Guardians 4-3 Sunday as -120 home favorites. Philadelphia is 4-8 over its last 12 games, but is still one of the best home teams in the majors with a 38-18 record at Citizens Bank Park. It is 54-51 against the spread (ATS) on the season.

The Yankees beat the Boston Red Sox 8-2 Sunday. They used a 3-run 1st inning to take the lead and never looked back. New York has won 2 in a row yet has lost 3 of its last 5. It sits 2nd in the AL East and is a strong 35-22 in away games this season. The Yankees have a better record on the road than at home (27-23) and are 55-51 ATS on the season.

Yankees at Phillies projected starters

RHP Luis Gil vs. RHP Zack Wheeler

Gil (10-5, 3.10 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 through 107 1/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 3-2 home loss to New York Mets Tuesday
• 2024 away splits: 5-2, 3.04 ERA (50 1/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 4 HR, 8.9 K/9 in 9 starts
• Never faced Phillies before

Wheeler (10-4, 2.55 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 0.98 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 through 123 2/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 3-0 road win over Minnesota Twins Tuesday
• 2024 home splits: 7-2, 1.77 ERA (71 1/3 IP, 14 ER), 0.88 WHIP, 4 HR, 10.2 K/9 in 11 starts
• Career vs. Yankees: 1-1, 5.91 ERA (21 1/3 IP, 14 ER), 1.78 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 in 4 starts

Who’s going yard ? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Yankees at Phillies odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook ; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 11:13 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML) : Yankees +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Phillies -154 (bet $154 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread : Yankees +1.5 (-164) | Phillies -1.5 (+136)
• Over/Under (O/U) : 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Yankees at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Yankees 3

Moneyline

BET PHILLIES ( -154 ).

The Phillies are 6-1 in Wheeler’s last 7 home starts. In those 7, dating back to April 20, he has allowed a combined 10 ER.

The Phillies will have a clear pitching advantage, having won Wheeler’s last 3 starts, and the Yankees, who played in Boston Sunday evening, will have a rest disadvantage.

New York is 2-3 in its last 5 games and 2-2 in its last 4 on the road. Considering the Phillies’ strength with Wheeler on the mound and at home in general, back PHILLIES ( -154 ).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS .

The Yankees are too expensive to take on the run line, at more than 1½ times a potential return. The Phillies, on the other hand, are too risky as run-line favorites.

Avoid this play.

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Over/Under

BET UNDER 9 ( -105 ).

The Phillies and Yankees both have efficient starters, which should help limit runs. The Phillies have gone Under in 3 straight games, scoring 12 runs over that span while allowing 7. They have scored 4 or fewer runs in 5 of their last 6 games.

Philadelphia is 2-6 O/U in its last 8 games. The Yankees have gone Over in 3 straight games overall, but have gone Under in Gil’s last 3 starts, allowing just 7 runs in those 3 outings combined. Considering those trends, take UNDER 9 ( -105 ).

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