Tim Benz: For Pirates GM Ben Cherington, it's not about new math -- it's about ditching old philosophies

On Sunday, Ben Cherington wanted to take us all to math class.

During Cherington’s weekly radio show on 93.7 The Fan, play-by-play man Joe Block asked the Pittsburgh Pirates general manager if the team’s recent hot stretch of eight wins in nine tries altered the front office’s approach in advance of the July 30 trade deadline.

“I don’t think it changes anything in terms of what our preparation has been,” Cherington said. “Because even before that run of 10 games we felt this team was capable of doing that. So we were preparing to be in a position to try to add to the team to try to help the team get better.

“What it clarifies is the math, basically. It does help the math look better when we win. That helps clarify, ‘OK. This opportunity, or this potential acquisition, really could make sense.’ Whereas, if the math is not looking as good, well, then in some cases, it’s harder to justify (a significant trade).”

Let’s come back to that math in a couple of minutes, because I actually think that a philosophy class is a bit more important right now.

NFL fans have come to know what a borderline wild card team looks like in the six or seven-team playoff format.

Usually, that looks like the Pittsburgh Steelers.

In other words: roughly nine or 10 wins. Just barely good enough to win most weeks. Always flawed enough to drive you crazy every week.

Similarly, NHL fans have come to know what a fringe wild card team looks like in the current post-season alignment.

Usually, that looks like the Pittsburgh Penguins.

In other words: a mid-to-low 90s point total. Just a point or two from being comfortably in the playoff mix, while also being just a point or two from 11th or 12th in the conference.

With Major League Baseball’s relatively new playoff tree, though, I think we’re still trying to assess what “ being in the race” at the trade deadline really looks like, and, by extension, how teams should go about attacking it.

Baseball fans and media are more resistant to change and predisposed to cling to an old-school mindset than just about any other group of sports fans. It’s just the nature of the game and the connection to its long history.

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Relating the conversation to the 2024 Pirates, it’s hard to look at a 50-49 record 99 games into the season and say, “ Hey! This Bucco team really has a shot ,” and sound convincing about it.

Especially since the last time the Pirates were a contender in 2015, their 98 wins weren’t even good enough to win the National League Central and were barely good enough to host a wild-card game.

But with three wild cards and six total teams from each league making the postseason now, they absolutely are in it.

At least at this point in the calendar. At least before other teams make sincere efforts to improve themselves in advance of the deadline.

The 84-win Arizona Diamondbacks not only qualified as the last team to make the 2023 NL bracket, but they went to the World Series. The same can be said for the 87-win Philadelphia Phillies of 2022.

Getting back to Cherington’s math equation, if the Pirates win approximately 35 or 36 of their remaining 63 games, they are likely to be in great shape for the final wild-card spot this year. That’s a .555 winning percentage. The team is currently performing at .505 clip. That’s a half-game behind three teams — the Mets, Diamondbacks and Padres — for the last wild card berth. They are all at a .510 winning percentage.

I guess, then, Professor Cherington, the math says go out and get some help. Make a splash between now and the end of the month.

But, frankly, the math has been saying that for a while now. Before the Pirates started their recent six-game win streak, they were only three games out of the last wild card spot with four teams to pass, even though they were only 44-48.

So it’s not really a change in math so much as it is a change in perspective. That’s because the Pirates have started to actually look like a playoff-worthy team of late, as opposed to simply one that gets in because someone has to get that last spot. Therefore, Cherington may be more willing to part with assets he covets to get immediate help for the stretch run.

It’s not 1979 or ‘92 or ‘15 anymore. Teams don’t have to be on a 90-win, pennant-clinching pace to warrant playoff consideration. By the very nature of the standings, they are being considered whether they appear worthy or not.

German mathematician Carl Jacobi is credited for saying, “Mathematics is the science of what is clear by itself.”

It’s clear to me that baseball’s playoff structure is keeping the Pirates alive into the second half of the season. It’s also clear to me that the general manager should do something in an effort to maintain that reality into August and September.

And probably should have already.