St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and predictions

The St. Louis Cardinals (52-47) take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (50-49) Monday in the opener of a 3-game set at PNC Park at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cardinals vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Cardinals lead 4-2

With a 6-2 win Sunday, the Cards took 2 of 3 from the Atlanta Braves on the road. They could have easily swept the series, but the bullpen faltered in Game 1 of a doubleheader Saturday. The offense is clicking. They hit 4 homers Sunday and 7 in the 3-game series — including round-trippers from struggling 1B Paul Goldschmidt and 3B Nolan Arenado . Emerging OF Alec Burleson went 6-for-13 (.462) with 6 RBIs in the series.

The Pirates took 2 of 3 at home from the Philadelphia Phillies over the weekend. They dropped Sunday’s game 6-0, though, which snapped a 6-game winning streak. The Bucs are 8-2 over their last 10. OF Bryan Reynolds is 11-for-19 (.579) with 1 homer and 5 RBIs in his last 5 games.

Cardinals at Pirates projected starters

RHP Andre Pallante vs. RHP Mitch Keller

Pallante (4-4, 4.21 ERA) makes his 9th start and 18th appearance. He has a 1.38 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 through 51 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 6 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 6-4 home setback July 10 against Kansas City Royals
• In 8 starts this season: 4-3, 3.70 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 vs. 0-1, 6.30 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, 5.4 K/9 in 9 relief outings
• 1 career start vs. Pittsburgh: No-decision, 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 3-2 road win in 10 innings July 4

Keller (10-5, 3.46 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.25 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 through 114 1/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 3 K in 9-4 win July 14 at Chicago White Sox
• 2 starts vs. St. Louis this season: 0-2, 7.36 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 9 K in 11 IP
• Career vs. Cardinals: 2-3, 3.97 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 7.3 K/9 in 12 starts

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Cardinals at Pirates odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook ; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:55 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML) : Cardinals +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Pirates -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS) : Cardinals +1.5 (-190) | Pirates -1.5 (+155)
• Over/Under (O/U) : 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Cardinals at Pirates picks and predictions

Prediction

Cardinals 4, Pirates 3

Moneyline

The Birds are flyin’ high after their road series win in Atlanta. With stud RHP Paul Skenes pitching Tuesday, they will throw everything on the table to win this game. Keller is a very good pitcher, but for whatever reason, the Cards have his number.

Take the CARDINALS +105 .

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Run line/Against the spread

I’m targeting Cardinals OF Lars Nootbaar here. Noot hit safely in all 3 games over the weekend and is 4-for-10 (.400) with a homer. He also hits Keller well with a .417 BA and 1 homer in 17 career at-bats. Take LARS NOOTBAAR OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI ( +100 ).

Over/Under

It’s slated to be a humid 73-degree evening with a 5-mph breeze blowing in. The Under is 4-2 in the 6 meetings this season. One of those Overs cashed with Keller on the mound, and it has cashed in his last 4 starts. I think he’ll make an adjustment, though, and I’ll take the UNDER 8.5 ( -115 ).

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