Pittsburgh Pirates at Houston Astros odds, picks and predictions

The Pittsburgh Pirates (53-52) and Houston Astros (55-50) open a 3-game set at Minute Maid Park Monday. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Pirates vs. Astros odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Astros won 2-1 last year

The Pirates avoided a 3-game sweep at the Arizona Diamondbacks, winning 6-5 in 10 innings as +104 underdogs in the Sunday finale as the Over (8.5) hit. Pittsburgh had just a 9.5% win probability with 2 outs in the 9th inning, according to ESPN Analytics, before C Joey Bart doubled in the tying run.

The Astros won 2 of 3 games against the Los Angeles Dodgers over the weekend. They wrapped up the series with a 6-2 setback as -130 home favorites Sunday with the Under (8.5) hitting. The loss ended a 3-game win streak for the Astros, their longest since winning 4 in a row July 9-12.

Pirates at Astros projected starters

RHP Paul Skenes vs. RHP Jake Bloss

Skenes (6-1, 1.93 ERA) makes his 13th start. The 22-year-old has a 0.87 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 11.7 K/9 in 74 2/3 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 8 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 8 K in 2-1 home setback vs. St. Louis Cardinals Tuesday
• 2024 road stats: 3-0, 0.86 ERA (31 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 0.61 WHIP, 13.8 K/9 in 5 starts
• Has never faced Astros

Bloss (0-1, 6.94 ERA) makes his 4th start. The rookie has a 1.63 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 11 2/3 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 8-2 defeat at Oakland A’s Tuesday
• 2024 home stats: 0-0, 4.70 ERA (7 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 1.57 WHIP, 7.0 K/9 in 2 starts
• Has never faced Pirates

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Pirates at Astros odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:55 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Pirates -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Astros +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates -1.5 (+135) | Astros +1.5 (-160)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

Pirates at Astros picks and predictions

Prediction

Pirates 4, Astros 3

Skenes has allowed 1 run or fewer in 5 of his last 7 starts. While Houston is 10th in MLB in runs per game, Skenes faced the New York Mets (7th) and Milwaukee Brewers (9th) earlier in July and gave up a total of just 2 runs over 14 innings.

Bloss has allowed 2 or more ER in all 3 of his career appearances. With such an advantage for Pittsburgh at starting pitcher, let’s take the bullpens out of the equation and back the Pirates to get an early lead in a low-scoring game.

BET PIRATES FIRST 5 INNINGS (-160).

Houston +1.5 (-160) will likely hit, but it’s hard to beat MLB long term betting into lines with this much vig.

PASS. Bet the 1st 5 innings and/or total instead.

The last time a team scored 3 or more runs against Pittsburgh when Skenes was starting was a 3-1 win for the Tampa Bay Rays June 23. If Skenes goes deep into this game, it’s unlikely that Houston will score more than 2 runs, and Pittsburgh’s 22nd-ranked offense rarely does much to help the Over hit (5-9-1 O/U as an away favorite this season).

At 7.5, this is an okay line to bet. I wouldn’t recommend it at 7, though — unless you like the Over.

BET UNDER 7.5 (-120).

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