George Pickens made a solid jump from his rookie to his sophomore year despite poor Quarterback play in both seasons. This year, the Steelers have a completely new Quarterback room. They traded away Kenny Pickett to the Eagles and let both Mitch Trubisky and Mason Rudolph walk in Free Agency. In replacement, they signed Russell Wilson to a one-year, 1.2 million-dollar contract and traded for Justin Fields for a conditional sixth-round pick that could become a fourth if Fields plays 51%+ of the Steelers' offensive snaps.
Although Wilson is past his prime and Fields has not been known for his passing accuracy, this is still a MAJOR upgrade from what Pickens has been dealing with in his first two seasons. In 2023, Pickens earned 106 targets. Just 73 of those targets were deemed catchable (per PlayerProfiler). His catchable target rate was 68.9%, 61st among Wide Receivers. Despite his Quarterback woes, Pickens led the NFL last year in yards per reception (18.1 yards), which can largely be attributed to Pickens' ability to create yards after the catch.
Pickens was 5th in the NFL last year in yards after the catch per reception with 6.5 yards (min of 70 targets). He's shown that he can be very efficient with the targets he does receive. This year, he could also see an increase in target share, with Diontae Johnson being traded to the Carolina Panthers. The Steelers drafted rookie Roman Wilson and signed Van Jefferson to help fill the void Johnson had left behind. The lack of off-season moves to bolster the Wide Receiver room shows the Steelers' faith in Pickens.
Van Jefferson has broken 45 targets just once. Due to his size and slot role, Roman Wilson will have a limited route tree and will take some time to develop as a rookie. The one change that should concern anyone drafting a Steeler this year is the incoming Offensive Coordinator, Arthur Smith. Smith was the Head Coach for the Falcons from 2021 - 2023. In that span, he has yet for his lead Wide Receiver to finish higher than WR36 in half-ppr formats.
This is due to the Falcons consistently being near the bottom of the league in pass attempts AND in the percentage of their pass attempts going to the Wide Receiver position. In 2023, the Falcons were 32nd in Wide Receiver target share and 26th in pass attempts. In 2022, they were 23rd in Wide Receiver target share and 21st in pass attempts. In 2021, they were 32nd in Wide Receiver target share and 21st in pass attempts.
As important as Pickens will be for this offense to move the ball, drafters need to be aware of the risk when drafting him. Last year, Pickens had four games as a WR1, one game as a WR2, one game as a WR3, and ELEVEN GAMES as a WR4+. Pickens can win you a week, but he can definitely lose you a week as well. Buyer beware.
Our consensus projections for Pickens in the 2024 season would be: 83 receptions, 1276 yards, 9 touchdowns through the air and 1 carry for 9 yards and 0 rushing touchdowns.
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