Election 2024: Races to watch in New Jersey

NEW JERSEY (PX11) — It’s been one of the most notable years for New Jersey politics in recent memory — indictments, upsets, and loss are just some themes of what has been a year that could shape the Garden State’s political future for years to come.

New Jersey lost two longtime figures of Capitol Hill, Representatives Bill Pascrell , 87, and Donald Payne, Jr., 65, Democratic Congressmen who leave lasting legacies in their respective districts. And with the disgraced former U.S. Senator Bob Menendez now jettisoned from politics following his conviction on federal corruption charges, New Jersey will have a new voice in the Senate for the first time since 2013.

Here are six of New Jersey’s most notable races, with insights from Micah Rasmussen, Director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics at Rider University.

Race for U.S. Senate: Andy Kim (D) vs. Curtis Bashaw (R)

The race to fill Bob Menendez’s seat in Washington is drawing national attention, particularly because of the Democratic candidate on the ticket. Congressman Andy Kim , who currently serves New Jersey’s 3rd Congressional District, notched a major victory in the Democratic primary after first lady Tammy Murphy, who many thought would run away with the nomination, dropped out following a lackluster campaign. Meanwhile, Republican Curtis Bashaw looks to flip the script – and the Senate seat. A Cape May hotelier, Bashaw will look to win over moderate voters and be the first Republican to fill a New Jersey Senate seat in half a century.

Rasmussen said Bashaw is “hoping this is the year in which the New Jersey GOP can break its 52-year shutout in U.S. Senate races, but he will have to beat Andy Kim, who has proven to be a force to be reckoned with.”

Meanwhile, Kim “has arguably become one of the most consequential elected officials of our time” following his primary win and his federal lawsuit that reformed the state’s county line primary ballot,” Rasmussen said.

Race for NJ-8: Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Inc.) vs. Anthony Valdes (R)

The incumbent Democratic Congressman, Rob Menendez, secured a victory over Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla in the June primary, distancing himself from his embattled father, who was on trial at the time. Republican Anthony Valdes, a multiple dwelling inspector for the state Department of Community Affairs, looks to pull off an upset.

“[Menendez] has already faced down the most serious challenge of his career,” said Rasmussen. “He was able to skillfully separate himself from his father’s fallen political fortunes. If he and [Democratic State Senator and 9th Congressional District candidate] Nellie Pou both win their elections, it will be the first time New Jersey is represented by two Hispanic lawmakers in the House.”

The 8th Congressional District includes parts of Essex, Hudson and Union counties.

Race for NJ-1: Rep. Donald Norcross (D-Inc.) vs. Teddy Liddell (R)

This South Jersey race is believed to heavily favor Democrat Donald Norcross. However, the race holds some political significance as his brother, political boss George Norcross , was among six indicted on racketeering charges earlier this year, another sign many take as some parts in New Jersey’s long-standing political machine beginning to buckle. Republican Teddy Liddell hopes to bring “new energy and leadership” to Congress.

“While the outcome of Donald Norcross’ reelection may not be in serious doubt, thanks to a district that has been drawn heavily in his favor, his political world has gone through substantial upheaval this year with the criminal indictments of his brother and other close political allies,” said Rasmussen. “Winning the race will show that Team Norcross did not miss a beat, even under the most trying of circumstances.”

The 1st Congressional District includes Camden County and parts of Gloucester and Burlington counties.

Race for NJ-7: Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. (R-Inc.) vs. Sue Altman (D)

This is shaping up to be the New Jersey congressional race to watch in November. Republican Tom Kean, the son of former Gov. Tom Kean Sr., unseated Democrat Tom Malinowski in 2022. Democrat Sue Altman, a nonprofit executive director and former high school basketball coach, looks to win the seat back for her party.

“This is certainly the district in New Jersey that has the potential to be the most competitive, especially if [Kamala] Harris does well and [Donald] Trump does poorly in this suburban, relatively affluent district,” said Rasmussen. “Sue Altman raised over $2 million in the last filing period — a serious benchmark that few candidates, either incumbents or challengers, have matched. This ensures she will have the resources to effectively communicate her message through Election Day. However, national Democrats have not targeted her campaign as one of their potential pick-ups, at least not as measured by where they are investing resources, so Tom Kean is breathing a little bit easier than he has in the past two election cycles.”

The 7th Congressional District covers Hunterdon and Warren counties and parts of Morris, Somerset, Sussex, and Union counties.

Race for NJ-10: LaMonica McIver (D-Inc.) vs. Carmen Bucco (R)

Democrat and former Newark Council President LaMonica McIver is the current representative after vanquishing Republican opponent Carmen Bucco in a special election following the passing of Congressman Donald Payne, Jr. on April 24. Both candidates are set to face off again in the general election on Nov. 5.

Rasmussen said this district, too, heavily favors the Democratic nominee.

The 10th Congressional District covers parts of Essex, Hudson, and Union counties.

Race for NJ-9: Nellie Pou (D) vs. Billy Prempeh (R)

The seat is unoccupied following the passing of the incumbent Democrat, Bill Pascrell, on Aug. 21. Democratic State Senator Nellie Pou was selected by county committee members in the 9th district to replace Pascrell on the ticket. Her competition is Republican candidate Billy Prempeh, a Paterson native and Air Force veteran.

“Unlike the 10th District, the timing of Pascrell’s death prevented filling the seat before the election,” said Rasmussen. “So it will remain vacant until January when either Pou or her opponent Billy Prempeh will be sworn in for the full, two-year term.

The 9th Congressional District covers parts of Bergen and Passaic counties.

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