Dutch Grand Prix weather forecast: F1 starting grid shake-up on the cards?

Mother Nature is predicted to once again spice up the Dutch Grand Prix with rain forecast for Saturday’s qualifying at the Zandvoort circuit.

Zandvoort has a reputation for being a circuit on which it is tough to overtake on and that was highlighted upon its return to the F1 calendar in 2021 when the top five off the line finished as the top five at the chequered flag.

Could Max Verstappen’s Dutch GP reign end in the rain?

To the delight of the Orange Army, it was Max Verstappen who won from pole position with that marking his first of three successive Dutch GP victories.

Last year, though, he was made to work a bit harder for it as rain in qualifying and again in the Grand Prix saw Fernando Alonso race his way from fifth on the grid to second at the flag where he crossed the line less than four seconds behind the Red Bull driver.

Pierre Gasly meanwhile went from 12th to third for Alpine.

This year’s race could also see a thriller play out with rain forecast from Friday afternoon’s FP2 through to the start of Sunday’s Grand Prix.

According to the Met Office, there is a 20 per cent chance of rain on Friday as the practice sessions begin with that increasing to 40 per cent for Saturday’s qualifying before dropping to 30 per cent for the Grand Prix.

But even if it only rains during qualifying, that could shake up the pecking order.

It is notoriously difficult to overtake at the Zandvoort circuit because of its limited straights and many corners, even with the increase in the banking angle at the famous Tarzan corner.

It was an issue that was highlighted by Red Bull motorsport advisor Helmut Marko with Red Bull having been knocked off their perch as the car to beat in single lap pace after Verstappen failed to grab pole position three races in succession.

“ One thing is clear : Qualifying in Zandvoort will be crucial, because overtaking is almost impossible there,” he said in the build-up to the Grand Prix.

Key information as F1 heads to Zandvoort for the Dutch GP

👉 F1 schedule: When is the next F1 race and where is it being held?

👉 The updated Drivers’ and Constructors’ standings after the Belgian Grand Prix

Friday’s high is forecast to be 22’C, dropping to 21 on Saturday and only 19 on Sunday.

Pirelli, F1’s tyre supplier, says even without the rain the ambient temperature could have a say with cool temperatures forecast for the entire weekend.

“On paper, thermal degradation is a very significant factor, but much will depend on the weather in late August,” the Italian tyre manufacturer said in their preview.

“The Netherlands borders Belgium and we saw before the break how climatic conditions at these latitudes can change from one day to the next and even within the space of a day, so that summer doesn’t necessarily mean warm temperatures and sunshine.

“The average temperature in Zandvoort in late August varies between 14 °C and 20 °C, which could help drivers manage even the softest compounds, as was seen in last year’s race when Tsunoda ran 50 laps on the Soft.

“A further variable results from the track’s proximity to the seashore, just one row of dunes and a street away, so that wind often coats the track with sand, thus lowering the grip available to the tyres.”

As such the teams and drivers will have the choice of Pirelli’s three hardest compounds, the C1 to C3, for the Dutch weekend along with the intermediate and full wet tyres.

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