Italian Grand Prix predictions: Max Verstappen podium, Mercedes v Ferrari battle

After a McLaren papaya-coloured qualifying at the Italian Grand Prix, the high temperatures at Monza will be key in determining Lando Norris’ chances of victory and Max Verstappen’s comeback.

We have predicted the top 10 positions for the Italian GP. And we encourage you, our readers, to make your own predictions for Sunday’s race as well!

Italian Grand Prix predictions from P10 to P1

10. Alexander Albon

The Williams car performs very well at high speeds as the Thai driver showed in qualifying with a sensational P9. On race pace, Williams should take a slight step backwards as usual but will still have to face the same rivals as in qualifying.

Albon will have to fight against Fernando Alonso’s Aston Martin and Nico Hülkenberg’s Haas to get into the points. After being in a similar situation to July’s Belgian GP at Spa where he finished P12, Williams has to maximise its chances to try to cut points from Alpine in the Constructors’ Championship.

9. Nico Hülkenberg

If there is one driver who is surprising positively this season, it is Nico Hülkenberg. Thanks to his great performances and Haas’ risky strategies by stretching the second stints to the limit, the American team is always in the fight for the points.

In Monza, thanks to the power of the Ferrari engine, they have a great chance to stay in the points throughout the race without the need for outlandish strategies.

Tyre degradation between Haas, Williams and Aston Martin will undoubtedly be key on a day where high temperatures are expected on track to see who will take the last two points spots.

8. Sergio Perez

It is now common to see him at the tail end of the drivers in the top four teams. Besides, Red Bull’s pace this weekend doesn’t seem to be that much better than Ferrari and Mercedes. It appears only an accident, a strategic mistake or excessive degradation of the drivers in front of him would help him climb positions in the race.

7. Carlos Sainz

Ferrari was the team that suffered the most graining in free practice on Friday. In addition, his long runs were not particularly positive compared to McLaren, Red Bull and Mercedes.

Carlos’ last race as a Ferrari driver looks set to be a tough race in the fight against Mercedes. The Spaniard managed a podium finish at Monza last season, but this time around it looks like he can’t hope for anything more than a P5 finish.

6. Lewis Hamilton

After a bad qualifying, the British driver has to make a comeback in the race. Hamilton has a joint-record five wins at Monza, and Mercedes seem to have a very competitive car this weekend, with Friday’s long runs putting them ahead of Ferrari on pace.

With a good start and good race pace, he may even be able to fight for the podium. However, to do so, he will have to have a perfect race and the W15 must prove to be far superior to the Italian team’s SF-24 at home. P4-P5 is the most optimistic result for him.

Looking ahead to the Italian Grand Prix

👉 Data reveals where big Lando Norris gap to Max Verstappen came in Monza qualifying

👉 Winners and losers from the 2024 Italian Grand Prix qualifying

5. Charles Leclerc

Friday’s long runs effectively put Mercedes ahead of Ferrari, but the Maranello team has certainly saved a performance bonus to impress their Italian fans at the track.

Charles Leclerc will have to try to be aggressive at the start to use the Ferrari engine’s greater power to try to overtake George Russell and keep him out of his DRS zone. If the Monégasque driver can do this, he has a good chance of even fighting for the podium in front of the tifosi.

4. George Russell

George will start the race from a very valuable P3 position that can give him a good tow before the first braking zone. And he will have both McLaren drivers ahead who tend to have bad race starts lately.

However, he will have some very tough rivals behind him who will be looking to snatch the podium off him from the opening laps. Two Ferrari’s looking for a great performance at home and Max Verstappen hungry for a comeback.

Russell is undoubtedly one of the candidates to fight for the podium, and in our predictions, we think there is one big name that can put him in trouble during the Monza race.

3. Max Verstappen

After a qualifying to forget, Max will have to bring out his best driving skills to minimise the points gap to Lando Norris after the Italian Grand Prix.

Red Bull was off the pace on Saturday, but it is expected that in the race he can make a small step forward and in the high temperatures of Monza and some good opening laps, Max can make up the lost ground.

Is it too optimistic to think of a podium finish? Looking at qualifying alone, yes, but looking at Friday’s long runs, a podium is possible for Max. But he will have to fight very hard against Mercedes and Ferrari.

2. Oscar Piastri

After a race in Netherlands where McLaren should have achieved their second 1-2 finish of the year, Piastri has a great opportunity to reaffirm himself as Lando Norris‘ best ally in the fight for the Drivers’ Championship – even though he still holds hopes of winning it himself.

However, if Lando has a bad start from pole position again, he should not hesitate to grab P1 because other drivers behind him can take advantage of his slipstream. He will have enough time to obey team orders – or not – if Lando is unable to get off the line again at the start.

1. Lando Norris

Norris is in a strong position to take his third win this year, his second in a row. He has the best possible starting position, his team-mate behind him to help him fend off potential threats… and is driving what is currently the best car on the grid.

Barring an unexpected turn of events, Lando should win the race at the Autodromo Nazionale Monza. In his epic attempted comeback to win the World Championship that already started at Zandvoort last week, victory in Italy is the second step to take to stay in contention for a title at the end of the season – even though he is not stating it publicly just yet.

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