‘He just won the election’: Hill Republicans predict Trump rally shooting will ease path to White House

Congressional Republicans already believed Donald Trump was headed back to the White House. Some of them think the Saturday night rally shooting has made his path even easier.

“President Trump survives this attack — he just won the election,” Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.) told POLITICO in a brief interview shortly after the shooting.

Other Republicans, who quickly went on offense after the shocking attack at a Trump rally in Western Pennsylvania, wouldn’t quite go that far. But many predicted that the shooting would solidify support for the former president and fire up their base in November.

“This will energize the base more than anything. And he, you know — with his fist in the air and he didn't want to leave. And he's yelling, fight, fight, fight. That'll be the slogan,” said Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.), referring to photos and videos of Trump that quickly circulated online.

The shooting, which several GOP lawmakers immediately labeled an assassination attempt, is sending shockwaves into an already tumultuous election. Democrats — who had been fighting over President Joe Biden’s electability and were only united in their criticism of Trump over the past two weeks — quickly silenced their attacks on the former president . And Republicans, who had stayed quiet amid Democratic brawling, were quick to blame the opposing party’s rhetoric for the attack on Trump.

Some congressional Republicans, like Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.), spread unfounded conspiracy theories that Biden had “sent the orders” for the shooting, referencing Biden’s figurative remarks saying that Democrats needed to put Trump “in a bullseye.” And Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), in a joint statement with Trump’s former national security adviser , said that Biden should “immediately order” prosecutors to drop federal charges against Trump as part of an effort to “take the political temperature down.”

It’s not just Republicans like Van Orden and Burchett in safer red districts that are predicting the political aftermath will highly motivate their voters in November.

Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-N.Y.), who represents a battleground district, said that while he believed issues like border security and the economy were already going to “lead Trump to victory,” the fallout from the shooting “no doubt makes people want to come out.”

D’Esposito’s Long Island district is one of roughly two dozen that will decide control of the House. Questions over Biden’s electability already had Democrats doubting their chances of holding onto the White House, and keeping the Senate majority was already considered an uphill climb. The Trump rally shooting has Republicans even more bullish about winning the full trifecta of federal government control: the presidency and both chambers of Congress.

The fallout seems likely to extend beyond politics, with members of both parties calling for an investigation into the matter. House Oversight Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) has already indicated that he plans to hold hearings on the shooting, though there’s a split among Republicans over whether to point fingers at the Secret Service for letting an attacker slip by — or wait to see what an official investigation says.

“There are many questions and Americans demand answers. I have already contacted the Secret Service for a briefing and am also calling on Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle to appear for a hearing. The Oversight Committee will send a formal invitation soon,” Comer said in a statement.

Speaker Mike Johnson, in a statement on X , vowed that the House will conduct a full investigation. FBI Director Christopher Wray was already scheduled before Saturday's shooting to testify in front of the House Judiciary Committee later this month.

"The American people deserve to know the truth. We will have Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle and other appropriate officials from DHS and the FBI appear for a hearing before our committees ASAP," Johnson said.

Burchett, a member of Comer’s committee, called it a “complete failure” by the Secret Service in a brief interview and predicted that hearings by the panel are “definite.”

One GOP lawmaker, who requested anonymity given the sensitivity of the situation, told POLITICO: “How the fuck did the Secret Service allow a guy with a weapon this close to the President?”

“There absolutely should be a call by Congress to do its oversight on how this happened — on how an individual with a weapon got this close to … a former president who is a major party candidate for president,” this Republican added.

And investigation demands aren’t just coming from House Republicans. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) said his chamber’s Homeland Security Committee “must investigate this assassination attempt and attempted mass murder and get to the bottom of how it could have happened.”

“The nation needs to know who did this. And why. And we need a full, public investigation by Congress into HOW it happened,” he added in a series of posts on X.

D’Esposito, a former New York City police detective, cautioned against blaming the Secret Service this early.

“I think from what we saw, the Secret Service did an excellent job. I mean, they were able to remove the president off the stage in seconds and get him secured into a vehicle and on his way,” said D’Esposito.

“So no, I don't think that we're at the point where we should be criticizing any of the law enforcement agencies,” he added. “I think it's very early. We need to see exactly what happened, how far away the shooters were, and see what actually happened.”