Siena poll: Harris gives Democrats breathing room in New York

ALBANY, New York — After months of tightening presidential polling numbers in New York, Vice President Kamala Harris has given Democrats a bit of breathing room in the country’s second-largest blue stronghold.

Harris leads former President Donald Trump 53-39 among likely voters, according to a Siena College Research Institute poll released Tuesday morning.

That 14-point lead is still relatively narrow — each of the past four Democratic presidential nominees have enjoyed advantages of 18 to 30 points in summertime Siena surveys.

But it marks an improvement over President Joe Biden, who had slimmer leads of 8 to 10 points in most of the monthly Siena polls conducted since last fall. The former presumptive nominee’s standing stoked down-ballot Democrats’ concerns over low turnout and even raised the possibility of New York becoming a presidential battleground .

Trump’s numbers in New York are unchanged. He was viewed favorably by either 37 or 39 percent of the electorate in every Siena poll from January through June, including 39 percent now.

Harris has comparably more appeal: 53 percent of the electorate views her positively, compared to 43 percent who have a negative opinion of her. That marks an improvement from Biden’s 42-53 favorability rating in June.

“Voters who were previously not sure if they were going to vote, or considering a third party candidate,” have come back to the Democrats, Siena spokesperson Steve Greenberg said.

In each of the past four presidential elections, Democratic candidates have performed a few points better in New York in November than Siena’s summer polling projected.

Harris’ lead narrowed to 12 points in a hypothetical six-way race. As of now, New York’s ballot is due to feature three candidates, including Robert Kennedy, who faces litigation attempting to remove him.

Elsewhere in New York: Gov. Kathy Hochul’s poll numbers remain weak, with only 39 percent of respondents viewing her favorably and 50 percent regarding her unfavorably, compared to 38-49 in June.

The New Yorkers polled registered positive views of Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand by a 40-33 margin that was consistent with her numbers over the past year.

Mike Sapraicone was viewed favorably by 4 percent of Democrats and 4 percent of Republicans. (And for anybody who, like most Siena respondents, has no idea who he is — Sapraicone is Gillibrand’s Republican challenger.)

Gillibrand led Sapraicone 56-33 in a head-to-head conducted after he was identified.

The state-level Equal Rights Amendment that will be on the ballot in November was backed by a margin of 68-23. Siena characterized it by saying the amendment “expands protections against discrimination from only race and religion to include others like ethnicity, disability, sex, sexual orientation and gender expression. It also protects abortion rights.”

Language for the referendum on the ERA that was approved by the state Board of Elections last week does not explicitly say that it would protect abortion, though a lawsuit brought by supporters hopes to change that.

Two months after Hochul placed an indefinite pause on a congestion pricing system for Manhattan, 22 percent of respondents said the tolling program “should be implemented as quickly as possible,” compared to 59 percent who said “it should be permanently scrapped.” A June Siena poll found 23 percent of people opposed the pause while 45 percent supported it.

Banning smart phones in classrooms, an idea Hochul has touted in recent months , was backed 60-32.

Unlike other Siena polls this year, this one — with a 4-point margin of error — sampled likely voters rather than registered ones. Pollsters spoke to 1,199 of them.

View the crosstabs here .