Wisconsin’s Senate race is set, finalizing the top battleground match-ups

The biggest Senate races of the year are now set.

Wisconsin’s match-up became official Tuesday, making it the last of the top-tier Senate battlegrounds to be finalized: Eric Hovde, a wealthy real estate executive recruited by national Republicans, easily defeated two opponents to win the GOP primary for the chance to take on Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin .

His victory, called by The Associated Press shortly after polls closed, marked the end of the Senate primary season for Republicans, who are hoping to wrest back the majority in 2024.

Republicans need to flip just two seats to guarantee reclaiming the Senate, and they already have a near-certain pickup in West Virginia where Sen. Joe Manchin is retiring. This year’s map is brutal for Democrats, who are looking to hold onto seats in the most competitive races this year: Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

But Democrats are more optimistic than ever about their chances now that President Joe Biden is not seeking reelection, and both parties got the match-ups they wanted in those states.

After a disappointing midterms, national Republicans worked hard to recruit candidates — especially wealthy self-funders — and clear the field for them. That effort included Wisconsin, though Hovde was not their first choice.

They tried to convince GOP Rep. Mike Gallagher to mount a bid. Instead, he left Congress entirely, resigning his seat to take a job with a venture capital firm.

Republicans turned then to Hovde, who first ran for Senate in 2012. He lost the Republican nomination that year to former Gov. Tommy Thompson, who himself went on to lose to Baldwin. In the 2022 midterms, Hovde considered running for governor but ultimately stayed out of the race.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee encouraged Hovde to run this time and he has an endorsement from former President Donald Trump. Republicans in Washington labored to clear his primary path so he could focus his attention on the general, and they were relieved when another self-funder, Scott Mayer, and former Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke decided not to run.

Republicans had hoped that Hovde would invest some of his own money into the race, and they weren’t disappointed: As of late July, he had loaned his campaign $13 million. Hovde made a fortune in real estate and banking. He is the co-owner and CEO of a Wisconsin-based real estate development company and he is also the CEO of a commercial business bank.

But Baldwin will be tough to beat, with the incumbency advantages of being in the Senate since 2013 and the war chest of a battleground Democrat. She is taking her reelection seriously, already reporting spending $31 million so far this cycle.

National Democrats have sought to paint Hovde as a carpetbagger from California. He was born and raised in Wisconsin but he has spent time on the West coast and bought a mansion in Laguna Beach, California. Senate Democrats’ campaign arm released a TV ad last week calling Hovde a “California banker” who was named “one of Orange County’s most influential residents” for three years in a row.

Baldwin, a liberal Democrat, was first elected to the Senate in 2012 after 7 terms in the House. She was the first woman elected to Congress from Wisconsin and was the first openly LGBTQ+ member of the House and of the Senate.

Baldwin has also seemed particularly open to Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket and spoke at a Harris rally in Eau Claire, Wisconsin last week. (Down-ballot Democrats had prepared for months to outrun Biden to have a chance of winning in November, and they had braced for the possibility that his deep unpopularity could drag them down so far they would lose all across the map.)

A perennial battleground, Wisconsin will play a crucial role in the fight for the White House and Congress, and Democrats are hoping to flip the state legislature as well.

Both Trump and Harris will be seriously contesting the state, which is a key part of the “Blue Wall” in the Rust Belt. And in addition to the Hovde-Baldwin race for the Senate, the state features a potentially competitive House race in its 3rd Congressional District, where Democrats hope to oust Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden .

Redistricting in the state has also given Democrats increased optimism about taking control of state government. The governor, Tony Evers, is a Democrat, and the left won a liberal majority in a major state supreme court election last year. The state supreme court ordered new state legislative districts that will give Democrats’ a boost as they look to retake the state house and the state senate, fomenting enthusiasm at the bottom of the ticket.