Harris reset the election, and congressional Dems are starting to shift strategies

Battleground Democrats are suddenly jumping at the chance to campaign with the top of the ticket. Outside groups are pushing resources toward offense. And swing House seats that President Joe Biden was losing by large margins are now tied.

Democrats cautiously believed that Biden's exit would revive their chances in key races . Now they’ve gotten a pile of evidence that it has — and it’s not just a brief moment.

In recent days, dozens of Democrats in crucial House and Senate contests have finally gotten back post-Biden polling, and it shows the Vice President Kamala Harris effect is, indeed, real. Senate Democratic incumbents have been ahead in almost every single publicly released poll except in the red state of Montana. One Democratic group testing presidential numbers in competitive House districts rarely saw data that showed Biden above 50 percent; Harris is clearing that threshold and sometimes well above it.

Democrats know there’s still no guarantee that it’s enough to win back the House, or the even tougher task of saving their Senate majority. But campaigns from California to Maine have already begun to subtly change strategy amid the tectonic shift in the election over the last month.

“They were ahead before … Now they're ahead by more,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said of his candidates in an interview in which he harkened back to the way his party outperformed expectations in the 2022 midterms. “Two years ago, it was, 'Oh, you're going to lose three, four seats.' I said, 'We're going to keep the Senate, maybe even gain one.' I'm saying the same thing now.'"

It’s an assertion that many in his party would have scoffed at just a month prior. But not after witnessing such a sustained surge of enthusiasm trickling down the ballot.

In California, one first-time Democratic candidate found donors were suddenly returning his cold calls, a sign his race is seen as more competitive. In neighboring Nevada, Democrats went from panicking that outside money would dry up because Biden was doing so poorly to now worrying that groups might pull money because Harris is doing so well.

They no longer fear that Biden’s wobbly electoral prospects would put Senate seats in Maryland and New Mexico into firmly competitive territory. In a sign of optimism, House Majority PAC, Democrats’ top congressional outside group, is now investing in red seats in Iowa and Wisconsin.

Republicans are openly sounding the alarm. While he touted strong recruits and grassroots energy fueled by former President Donald Trump, House Speaker Mike Johnson this week warned in a private call with members this week that some of the “numbers are ominous,” according to a person on the call. And Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.), the chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, said on that call that he’s seen significant polling shifts toward Democrats, who are “peaking really at the right time,” while warning about a jarring financial gap with Democrats.

One of the clearest signs yet that the party’s fortunes have improved: Vulnerable Democrats who were trying to distance themselves from Biden are now eager to run with Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.

Even Democratic candidates in the toughest battleground turf are begging the Harris-Walz campaign to get them on the trail. Walz is already in discussions with multiple down-ballot candidates about setting up joint political events. One idea from the Minnesota governor and former football coach: attending a series of Friday night high school football games in key districts, according to two people familiar with the discussions.

Democrats are seeing significant polling shifts and other new signs of life

Rep. Michelle Steel of California is one of just 16 Republicans in a district that Biden carried in 2020 — something that should make her uniquely vulnerable. But her Democratic opponent, Derek Tran, was having some trouble convincing others to believe it.

Donors told him they wouldn’t give until Biden dropped out — if they answered his call at all. Voters were disengaged and despondent. Tran’s own polling showed that Biden was losing the Orange County district to Trump by 6 points , even though Biden won it by 6 points in 2020.

Then the president dropped out.

“It's been like a 180 from what it was before,” Tran said in an interview. “The types of conversations I was having with donors and constituents out there was just, ‘We're done. We don't want to be part of this. This is stupid.’ As opposed to when we saw the change at the top of the ticket, it was electrifying.

Fundraising jumped, with donors telling him they wanted to make sure Harris, if elected, had a Democratic House. Voters, especially those under the age of 30, were tying up phone lines, he said, asking to volunteer and for yard signs. He is planning to open a second field office soon to accommodate the increased interest.

Particularly comforting: Internal Democratic polling from late July found Harris beating Trump by 1 point in the district — a 7-point improvement from Biden.

Democrats knew they would have to outrun the top of the ticket in most places. But after Biden’s disastrous debate in June, fears mounted that he would be so toxic, that down-ballot Democrats would not be able to escape his drag. They don’t have that concern with Harris.

Rep. Ann McLane Kuster (D-N.H.), who runs the centrist New Democrat Coalition, has seen a flood of internal polling from her group’s 20 incumbents and 40 candidates. And she likes what she sees.

Kuster said candidates are seeing swings of as many as 5 points in their favor. (Kuster, who announced prior to Biden’s dropout that she wouldn’t seek reelection , declined to provide specifics on the polling, which has not been made public.)

“The path that we were on was unsustainable, and we were losing ground all across the board in every part of the country,” Kuster said. Now, she’s talking to members seeing hundreds of new volunteers showing up to knock on doors.

Just a few weeks ago, one battleground Democrat shared some internal polling within the party showing Biden with an approval rating in the 30s in this district, though the president had won it in 2020. (Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi shared this precise poll with Biden’s team in the days before he dropped out, the member said.)

Now, this member said, granted anonymity to discuss strategy and private polling: “I’m feeling damn good.”

As things shift, control of Congress remains highly competitive

Republicans were openly boasting during their convention last month that they would contest seats that Biden had carried by double-digit margins in 2020.

Now they’re more worried about hanging onto the seats they already have.

On the call Thursday night with members, Hudson acknowledged the House GOP campaign arm’s own polling showed the generic congressional ballot and the presidential ballot shifting toward Democrats in key districts, according to a person on the call, granted anonymity to discuss a private meeting. But the head-to-head polling between named congressional candidates was holding steady.

In other words: The environment changed, but Republicans still have a clear path to hold their majority.

“Our theory of the case all along was that the map was small and that post-redistricting there were just not a lot of truly competitive seats,” said Dan Conston, the president of the House GOP-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund. “We did not change our tune or our thinking or planning when we were on a sugar high with Biden. And it hasn't changed our planning with Kamala on a sugar high.”

Democrats agree the core battleground map is small, and control of Congress will be determined by a handful of key districts. But they also see increased opportunity.

Republicans had been eagerly looking to make inroads in the Sun Belt. Now, Democrats are privately predicting those states, especially California, Arizona and Texas, could help make up their majority. As part of his extensive travel plans for this summer, Johnson will make stops next week in California, New Mexico and Arizona, where he'll help boost incumbent candidates. He and his team will also go on the offense in highly competitive territory like New Mexico's second district, where the House GOP campaign arm is opening a new field office.

"We are right where we expected to be — in a knife fight — but because we are well-prepared, we are well-positioned to grow our majority," National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Jack Pandol said.

Some Democrats are still anxious about a handful of battleground open seats: two seats in Michigan, one in Orange County, California, and one in Virginia.

But the party is also seeing Harris’ rise as pulling new seats into play, and they’ve already begun shifting money into offensive targets: a red-leaning district in Iowa, and two more in Wisconsin.

Privately some hope to be able to slash defensive reservations — perhaps no longer needed — that could provide cover to members in blue-leaning seats in Ohio, Nevada and New Hampshire.

And on the Senate side, Democrats are breathing easier about Maryland and New Mexico.

But the Senate map is even more precarious than the House. Harris has improved upon Biden’s standing in key states like Arizona and Nevada, which have significant numbers of younger voters and voters of color. But those shifts aren’t enough to seriously change the competitiveness of those Senate matchups.

Republicans need to win just two more seats to gain control — and they have a guaranteed pickup in West Virginia, and two prime opportunities in Ohio and Montana.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee said it did not plan to change its overall strategy of contrasting “the strong Democratic candidate and a deeply flawed Republican recruit” in many of its races, but that it was “bolstered by the overall increase in Democratic enthusiasm.”

“The numbers improved after President Biden made his decision, and Kamala Harris rolled out her campaign,” said Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.). “I think it's going to get better."

Nicholas Wu, Ursula Perano and Olivia Beavers contributed to this report.