Harris leads Trump among Hispanic voters in Arizona

A new poll in the battleground state of Arizona finds Vice President Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump among likely Hispanic voters — though a large share of the Latino vote is still potentially up for grabs.

Among likely Hispanic voters in Arizona, Harris leads Trump, 59 percent to 34 percent. Still, 35 percent of those voters reported they are still not completely certain about who they will vote for in November.

Just weeks after Harris replaced President Joe Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket and named Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, voters indicated they still needed to know more.

The findings by TelevisaUnivision’s Strategy & Insights and Media in partnership with Media Predict , shared exclusively with POLITICO, underscore the dynamic nature of the 2024 general election and the work the Trump and Harris campaigns still need to do to lock down support.

“People are not certain,” said Kathy Whitlock, VP of Strategy & Insights at TelevisaUnivision. “They don't have enough information. They know Donald Trump from years ago, but they want to know Donald Trump now. Kamala Harris, they don't know that much about but they want to hear about Kamala Harris now … she's really unknown, so they're excited because of the change, but they need to be convinced.”

Of the seven main battleground states, Arizona has the largest Latino population. Exit polls suggested they made up about 20 percent of the electorate in 2020, and Biden won them by a similar margin to the survey result for Harris against Trump.

But Trump has made inroads with Latino voters in other states like Florida, Nevada and Texas.

“A 35-percent undecided number is demonstrating dissatisfaction certainly with Trump as a known quality. But also maybe — maybe — they don't have enough information on Harris yet,” said Mike Madrid, the author of “The Latino Century” and a co-founder of the Lincoln Project. “So we've seen that undecided narrow considerably more in other places. But that's a big number.”

In Arizona’s marquee Senate race, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego leads among Hispanics over Republican Kari Lake, 63 percent to 29 percent. And reflective of the general election race, Gallego’s strongest support is among men, and Lake’s strongest support is among women.

The poll found that only 33 percent of Hispanic likely voters in Arizona believe the country is heading in the right direction, and economic issues — cost of living, inflation, affordable housing and jobs — topped their list of concerns.

And the poll reflected why: Hispanic voters are younger, have a lower median household income, have larger households with children under the age of 18, and are more likely than non-Hispanic voters to rent their homes. Fifty-five percent of Hispanics polled reported they work a second job, or have worked a second job, to make ends meet, compared to 42 percent of non-Hispanics.

“They're making a lot less money than non Hispanics, they've got more kids in the household and they are renters. So they are really, really focused on pocketbook issues. If you look at what's important to them, it's especially affordable housing,” said Whitlock. “Crime and immigration are important, but a lot of them are taking two or three jobs just to get by.”

Hispanics were split on which party is better able to handle the issue of border security, though Democrats have a small advantage on immigration more broadly, 48 percent to 41 percent.

Sixty eight percent of Hispanics said that the U.S. should provide a pathway to legal status, including citizenship, for undocumented immigrants who have been in the U.S. and have not committed a serious crime, and 67 percent said securing our southern border is an important step toward stopping the flow of illegal drugs and sex trafficking into the United States.

“Latinos are open to the economic message that Donald Trump offers,” said Barrett Marson, an Arizona Republican strategist. “Many of them want a strong border, they have issues with border control, immigration and so Trump appeals to some Latinos in that regard.”

Among the 55 percent of Hispanic voters who said there was one specific issue that would determine their vote, and among that cohort, abortion ranked the highest with 23 percent saying it was a top priority. But overall, Hispanic voters said they believed Democrats would do a better job handling the issue of abortion.

On Tuesday, the state Supreme Court ruled that voters will be able to vote on a measure in the upcoming election that would make it a “fundamental right” for someone to obtain an abortion anytime before viability, the point at which a fetus has a significant chance of surviving outside the womb, which is generally around 24 weeks.

Both the Harris and Trump campaigns have invested in the state.

The Harris campaign has 13 coordinated offices across the state with more than 120 full-time staff on the ground in Arizona. The Harris campaign recently launched a new paid media blitz in battleground states, including Arizona, targeting Latino voters with ads in English and Spanish, and the seven-figure ad buy in Arizona will run through the convention. And Harris recently held one of the largest Democratic rallies in the state’s history with more than 15,000 supporters.

The pro-Trump super PAC, MAGA Inc., released an ad in Arizona and other battleground states blaming Harris for the “chaotic mess” at the border.

The Trump campaign planned two stops in Arizona as part of its counterprogramming tour during this week’s Democratic convention. Trump will visit the U.S.-Mexico border at Cochise County, Arizona, on Thursday and will hold a rally in Glendale, outside of Phoenix, on Friday.

While Trump has made gains with Latinos , polling shows Harris running stronger with Hispanic voters than Biden was before he dropped out. One analysis shows Harris running about 6 percentage points ahead of Biden’s margin with Latinos.

The TelevisaUnivision’s Strategy & Insights and Media poll was conducted August 1-8, surveying 721 Latino voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.