Maryland Senate race in a dead heat, poll finds

The Maryland Senate race is tied, despite Vice President Kamala Harris’ massive lead in the state’s presidential contest, according to an AARP poll released Tuesday.

The race to succeed Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin , who is not running for reelection after three terms, is essential for Democrats to retain their imperiled majority in the chamber. Maryland hasn’t had a Republican senator since 1987, and President Joe Biden won the state by over 33 points in 2020. Seven of its eight representatives are Democrats.

But Democratic Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks and Republican former Gov. Larry Hogan are neck-and-neck at 46 percent each, with 8 percent of voters undecided, the poll found. That’s notable for the deep-blue state, where the poll shows Harris leads former President Donald Trump by 32 points in a head-to-head race.

About a quarter of poll respondents, 26 percent, who said they were backing Harris in the presidential race chose Hogan in the Senate contest. And the former governor is also winning independents by 23 points — even though they favor Harris by 19 points in the head-to-head presidential race. Hogan also has a 13-point lead among 50- to 64-year-old voters, though Alsobrooks polls 8 points higher with seniors. Voters over 50 made up a majority of the Maryland electorate in 2022, according to AARP.

The former governor has sought to distance himself from the GOP, despite receiving Trump’s endorsement . He has a net favorability rating of 59 percent, including 57 percent among Democrats.

Maryland’s Senate race is the third most expensive this cycle, according to OpenSecrets , trailing only the races in California and Texas.

The poll was conducted Aug. 14-20, surveying 1,258 likely voters in Maryland, including oversamples of older voters and older African American voters. Likely voters were surveyed by phone and SMS-to-web and selected randomly off a list of registered voters in the state. The margin of error for the statewide election results is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The poll was conducted by a bipartisan team of pollsters: the Republican firm Fabrizio Ward, which is the leading pollster for Trump’s campaign, and Impact Research, which is part of Harris’ polling team and led survey efforts for Biden’s 2020 campaign.