Hochul's headwinds become tougher with indictment of alleged foreign agent

ALBANY, New York — Gov. Kathy Hochul has careened from one crisis to the next — and her mounting problems are stirring talk among fellow Democrats of a potential primary.

The Tuesday arrest of Linda Sun, a former deputy chief of staff to the governor, on charges that she acted as an unregistered agent of the Chinese government is the latest in a string of political headaches to plague Hochul, who took over as governor in 2021.

Sun’s indictment, which lays out an array of efforts to influence New York state’s posture toward China and Taiwan, has provided yet another opening for Republicans and potential general election opponents.

It has also stirred fresh concerns among Democrats about Hochul’s electoral viability.

Even before the sweeping indictment alleged an agent of the Chinese Communist Party infiltrated state government, Hochul’s political baggage was multiplying.

Her vulnerabilities include basement-level approval and favorability ratings that have not budged much this year, despite her championing a range of popular measures to address crime and cost of living. Democrats are mindful of her relatively narrow victory over Republican Lee Zeldin two years ago too — a showing that party eminences like former Speaker Nancy Pelosi blamed for down-ballot losses .

Democratic operatives and committee members have privately discussed what the world will look like when — and if — Hochul runs for reelection in 2026, and whether a replacement is needed at the top of the party’s ticket, said four people granted anonymity due to the sensitivity of the talks.

“There was very real conversation at the DNC about a primary challenge to Hochul to prevent a Republican from taking over New York state government,” said Transport Workers Union International President John Samuelsen, a Hochul critic, in an interview.

Given the institutional power a governor can wield, hardly any Democrats were willing to speak on the record about a potential primary against Hochul, who holds a 39 percent favorable rating , according to a Siena College poll released last month.

But it’s a scenario some of them have compared to the one President Joe Biden faced in July, one in which an incumbent — beset by low poll numbers who down-ballot candidates feared would be a millstone for them in November — is prodded off the ticket.

With her own reelection still two years away, Hochul is facing this moment at a crucial time: She has expanded the state Democratic Committee to aid House candidates running in swing districts to help Democrats capture control of the narrowly divided chamber.

The success of those efforts could quiet critics, while failure could dim her future.

“Governor Hochul is focused on continuing to deliver for New Yorkers — whether it’s putting money back in working families’ pockets, cracking down on gun violence, or enacting nation-leading laws to protect kids online,” Hochul campaign spokesperson Jen Goodman said. “Right now, the governor is dedicated to electing Democrats across the board in 2024, and has made unprecedented investments in the state party infrastructure to sustain a strong Democratic future in New York for years to come.”

Hochul has had to contend with inherited woes like New York City’s unpopular congestion pricing toll program and a politically problematic law limiting when cash bail is required. She has had to address both of those issues, in part, to defuse electoral fallout for the party’s House candidates.

But the approach has, at times, been a maladroit one.

Hochul indefinitely paused congestion pricing in June and cited concerns over the $15 toll for entering parts of Manhattan would have adversely affected working people — a move that was largely popular with voters . But she did little of the internal political spadework to convince the program’s powerful supporters of the need to shelve the plan.

In Albany, Hochul has struggled with the Democratic-dominated Legislature as well.

It took two years for her to win the passage of a complicated and sweeping housing package after her initial proposal angered voters in the key Long Island suburbs .

Her nominee to lead the state’s top court was voted down by the state Senate — a nomination she insisted go forward despite concerns Democratic lawmakers raised publicly over the pick.

Her first lieutenant governor, Brian Benjamin, resigned after he was arrested on federal bribery charges.

The pile up of miscues has alarmed fellow Democrats, who believe the Sun indictment is the latest in a parade of needless blunders.

“She seems to keep veering away from the better decision that’s placed in front of her,” Democratic consultant Alexis Grenell said. “It’s completely unnecessary, self-inflicted damage that she could change tomorrow, and I wish she would.”

Hochul on Wednesday said she was shocked by Sun’s indictment and described the allegation that China tried to unduly influence state policy as “unacceptable.”

“The indictment lays out very clearly that these actions taken by Linda Sun were an absolute betrayal of two administrations in state government,” Hochul said. “More importantly than that, this is a betrayal of New Yorkers and the American people.”

Sun was fired by the Hochul administration in March 2023 after state officials found evidence of misconduct.

Sun is accused by federal prosecutors of trying to leverage her access to top elected officials so she could influence New York state government’s posture to China.

Those efforts included blocking Taiwanese representatives from meeting with the governor’s office, providing unauthorized official proclamations of support and attempting to set up a trip for a prominent elected official to travel to China, according to the indictment.

In exchange, prosecutors have charged that Sun received concert tickets and duck dinners prepared by the personal chef of a Chinese government representative and delivered to her parents. Benefits also allegedly went to the business of her husband, Chris Hu. The arrangement helped fuel a lifestyle in which the couple bought luxury vehicles and a Hawaiian condominium, according to the indictment.

Sun and Hu have pleaded not guilty.

Sun has worked in various roles within state government for nearly 14 years, according to a LinkedIn profile. She worked in former Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s administration — and the indictment includes details of how she tried to influence his office on China as well. She helped secure ventilators and personal protective equipment from Chinese sources in the early weeks of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Sun, who Hochul promoted to the level of deputy chief of staff, is just one in a string of troubles she inherited from Cuomo, including the bail law and a balky cannabis legalization measure.

Hochul has pressed to bolster public safety in the state, which polling has consistently shown is a key concern for voters. She successfully won more funding for the state police, narrowed the scope of the cashless bail law and won measures cracking down on illegal cannabis stores and retail theft.

Her push back against left-leaning criminal justice amendments came after Zeldin, a former Long Island Republican House member, came within 6 points of unseating her in 2022 on a platform that leaned heavily on public safety issues.

Zeldin’s showing in New York translated to Republican victories down-ballot in swing House seats — wins that helped give the GOP control of the chamber.

Pelosi has repeatedly blamed Hochul for the 2022 House results, most recently in an interview with POLITICO last month .

In response, Hochul pointed to losses in House races in Pelosi’s home state of California.

“The same year we lost five seats in California, so I think a broader analysis would be justified,” she said Wednesday at an event hosted by Semafor.

Still, Hochul could be a formidable opponent.

Her campaign has amassed a war chest: She has raised $22 million and has $13.5 million in cash on hand. Hochul is yet to blanket the airwaves with TV ads, which could shore up her poll numbers and swamp any challengers, including those within her party.

She has also become a prominent surrogate for Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign and has been a mainstay presence on cable news for much of the summer.

And, as she was seeking a full term in 2022, Hochul easily dispatched her primary challengers, New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams and Rep. Tom Suozzi , with 68 percent of the vote.

This year, Hochul has marshaled the resources of the state Democratic Committee to help down-ballot candidates. Her political team has touted a growing army of volunteers and headquarters opening in swing districts — infrastructure that rivals a presidential campaign in a battleground state.

“No one was happy with the climate in New York in 2022,” said former Rep. Steve Israel, a Hochul ally, in an interview last month. “My sense is it’s better to get it right in ’24 than relitigate what happened in ’22. The speaker has every right to be concerned about the climate. What we need to do now is improve in ’24 and that’s what the coordinated campaign is for.”

Israel, a former chair of the House Democrats’ campaign arm, believes Hochul’s push for congressional candidates in New York has been beneficial.

“If you don’t make these investments, you’re going to lose,” he said. “If you do make these investments you have a possibility of winning.”

Former Gov. David Paterson believes Hochul has been a quietly effective, if not particularly flashy, governor. He credited her for her handling the migrant crisis and the support she has been able to get from the Biden administration.

“I don’t think she is vulnerable,” Paterson said. “Someone who wants to tangle with her in a couple of years would find the sledding very difficult.”

Some Democratic operatives believe Hochul has grown into the role, with the campaign effort being a key piece.

“Two years ago she was considered the accidental governor,” said Lupe Todd-Medina, a consultant who has worked for Hochul and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries . “Now she has her sea legs.”

But the Republicans who have not ruled out challenging Hochul in two years are circling.

“As more time goes by, Gov. Hochul’s favorability numbers continue to head in the wrong direction and her job approval numbers continue in the wrong direction,” Zeldin said in an interview. “She really needs to look in the mirror and blame herself and take responsibility.”

Rep. Mike Lawler , a Hudson Valley battleground Republican, added that it is not just Republicans who have been critical.

“A leopard can’t change its spots. The reality is Kathy Hochul is way over her head,” he said. “She’s viewed by Democrats, not just Republicans, as feckless and inept.”