Johnson’s future speakership could hinge on the spending fight

Mike Johnson has spent the first 10 months of his speakership balancing the needs of the House Republican majority with the demands of his rebellious right flank. Now he faces one final legislative test before he asks GOP lawmakers to let him keep the gavel next year: A September spending fight.

With a government shutdown deadline looming on Oct. 1, Johnson has two choices: Lean into conservative priorities and risk chaos weeks before the election, or work on a bipartisan basis to keep the government running, likely angering his right flank. Johnson has opted for the former, at least as his opening move. And it’s not hard to see why: The speaker has faced repeated ouster threats from conservatives, so he needs to shore up support among that group if he wants to keep his gavel next year.

It’s almost impossible to truly satisfy their spending demands — a band of hard-liners is leading the push for a stopgap funding bill that kicks the shutdown deadline into March and includes a proposal that would require proof of citizenship to register to vote. Johnson is planning to tee that up in the House as a way to squeeze Democrats on the issue, but it’s doomed in the Democratic-controlled Senate. And he faces significant pressure from other Republicans who don’t want a shutdown so close to an election.

So he has to hope that the show of force is enough to appease his right flank just weeks before he’ll personally need their support for a potential speakership bid. If that plan doesn’t work, he risks antagonizing the conservatives who are most likely to challenge his attempt to keep the gavel next year.

“We got to lead into September. Let’s go deliver a message. Go pick a fight and win it. … So we’ll see,” Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) said when asked about Johnson’s leadership.

The speaker’s prospects for keeping his leadership spot have improved since 11 of his own members advanced a long-shot, ultimately unsuccessful, effort to strip him of power in May. Since then, the Louisianan has worked to further bridge the gap with his right flank, significantly stepped up his fundraising game for both vulnerable colleagues and conservatives and focused his raucous conference on unifying messaging bills.

That work has somewhat paid off. The conventional wisdom for months was that Johnson would need a huge majority to hold onto power. Now, some Republicans say he could stick around even if he picks up only a couple of seats.

“I think a lot of it depends on the election. If we gain the majority and we do a good job, I think he’s got a good chance of regaining that,” said Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-Ga.). He praised Johnson but also quipped that “Knowing us, we will probably not be short of opponents” for the speakership.

Another House Republican, who was granted anonymity to speak frankly, put it more succinctly: “If we don't pick up any seats, he’s extremely vulnerable. I think if we lose the majority, he might as well call it. But if we pick up seats, he's gonna be in a very strong position.”

But the spending fight will still be crucial, particularly if House Republicans only narrowly maintain control of the chamber. Even if GOP lawmakers select Johnson as their speaker nominee in a November ballot — which only requires the backing of a majority of Republicans — the real problem comes during the full House speakership vote in January. A slim majority means it would take only a handful of rebellious conservatives to cause huge problems for Johnson in that vote, since no Democrats will vote for him.

One senior Republican, also granted anonymity to speak candidly, acknowledged that there is still political danger for Johnson’s speakership ambitions embedded in that September battle. Even if the GOP ends up being forced to cut a bipartisan deal in the end, Johnson has to try to placate his right flank first, this member said.

“He's going to look to see where the conservatives are, in my opinion, because the conservatives are always the one to threaten to kick him [out],” the senior Republican said.

House GOP leadership is expected to try to put the conservative-favored bill on the floor next week, though it’s unclear if it could even pass the House. In addition to the noncitizen voting proposal, the legislation would punt the spending fight into next year — when conservatives are hoping former President Donald Trump will be in the White House. Democrats and even some Republicans prefer a more straightforward spending bill that sets up a December shutdown deadline and doesn’t include the policy rider.

Meanwhile, Johnson also has to work to grow his majority come November and keep Trump happy, given his relationship with the former president could be critical in shoring up conservative support. Trump, for his part, has publicly urged Republicans to shut down the government if they don’t get their citizenship voting bill.

Johnson has been in conservatives’ crosshairs before, despite the fact he ideologically aligns with most of them. GOP lawmakers unanimously elected the Louisiana Republican to lead the House, but Johnson was facing serious threats to his job, spurred by his right flank, just months later.

When those warnings turned into an actual ouster effort, led by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), Trump helped Johnson at the time, publicly calling for Republicans to keep the speaker in power. Eleven Republicans still voted to advance an effort to boot Johnson, though it never came to an actual ouster vote because Democrats came to his aid.

He can’t count on that come January, if Republicans hold onto the House. Democrats will almost certainly back Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries , and Johnson needs a majority of all House members to become speaker. Absent winning the House by a large margin, Johnson will need near-unanimity from the GOP to keep the gavel.

And Republicans aren’t feeling optimistic about their chances of significantly growing their majority. Kamala Harris’ rise has been a huge blow to their confidence both for the presidential race and down-ballot. Plus, Democrats have been significantly outraising Republicans in both the House and the Senate.

Johnson has been working to address that gap while also building favor with members, traveling the country over the summer to fundraise and campaign for both centrists and conservatives. And he’s taken other concrete steps to bridge the divide with the right, including putting former House Freedom Caucus Chair Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) on the House Intelligence Committee.

Still, the spending fight will come with more than minor political hiccups. Some of Johnson’s biggest critics are trying to force his hand by lobbying Trump to push for the conservative-favored plan or endorse a shutdown, a reminder that the speaker isn’t the only one in the conference who has connections to the former president.

Greene told the Washington Examiner last week that she has repeatedly spoken to Trump about a potential government shutdown if Johnson doesn’t attach conservative policy demands like the noncitizen voting bill, known as the SAVE Act, to the stopgap spending bill.

Some Republicans theorize that the right flank might purposefully try to make Johnson’s life more difficult in September. There’s a growing view that Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), a darling of conservatives, is positioning himself to seek a top leadership position in the next Congress, particularly if the party is in the minority. Jordan has repeatedly brushed off questions about jumping into another leadership race, saying that he supports Johnson and wouldn’t challenge him. Russell Dye, a spokesperson for Jordan, told POLITICO that the Ohioan “fully supports Mike Johnson as speaker and has total confidence in his leadership.”

Jordan’s attempt to take the speakership in the fall, before Johnson was elected, was defeated amid stalwart centrist opposition, among other factions. But he’s not the only longtime speaker hopeful seen as likely to step up if Johnson falls: Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) and Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) are viewed as contenders as well. Scalise faced resistance from allies of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, as well as Jordan backers who sought to block him. And Emmer has moved to shore up relationships within both the conference and Trump’s orbit, after those became major weak points in his bid last year.

But there’s an obvious question when Republicans privately discuss other candidates: Who else could get the necessary 218 votes?

“I think Mike's in a strong position. I actually think the motion to vacate, while a lot of his allies feared it, I think it did a lot to strengthen his hand,” said one Johnson ally, granted anonymity to discuss the race, referring to the effort to oust the speaker. “Let's say our margin is only three in January. … Good luck finding anybody who doesn't have three detractors in the conference. It’s going to be hard for anybody to get 218.”