How the Trump-Harris debate tonight could shake up the 2024 race, according to political pros

Donald Trump has to speak coherently and stay on message. And Kamala Harris, well, she has to do a lot of things.

Harris not only has to parry Trump — and avoid getting dragged into a name-calling contest if he goes there in tonight's debate. She has to present her most solidified picture of her candidacy yet to voters who are still getting to know Democrats’ new standard-bearer with less than two months until Election Day.

Both candidates are coming into what may be their last major opportunity to shake up this still-close race well outside of their comfort zones. The former president has struggled to recalibrate against his new rival. The vice president has rarely had an unscripted moment since picking up her party’s mantle from President Joe Biden.

POLITICO reached out to some of the smartest strategists and power players in politics to ask them what the expectations are for Harris’ and Trump’s ABC-moderated matchup in Philadelphia — and what constitutes a win for each candidate.

Here are their responses, edited for length and clarity:

Tricia McLaughlin, Republican consultant who worked on Vivek Ramaswamy’s presidential bid:

I’m watching to see if Trump can stay on message and if he can just talk about policy — namely the economy — and avoid any personal attacks. Let’s not get into any of the gender and race stuff. Harris does best when she’s talking about personal anecdotes, but she kinda flounders when it comes to policy. I think she’s banking on Trump tripping himself up and she’s going to want to avoid a lot of the Biden-Harris record, mainly the economy and immigration — that’s the tug of war I’m going to be looking for.

That being said, I think the issue of abortion is going to be tougher when it’s against Kamala Harris. Even just the image of a man versus a woman talking about this issue — it’s obviously an area of vulnerability for Republicans; I have concerns.

Celinda Lake, president of Lake Research Partners and a Democratic pollster who worked with the Biden campaign:

The No. 1 thing I’ll be looking for is how much Trump can control himself. Now, he did a very effective job of that in the Biden debate, and he was aided by the mics being off in between questions. But he just doesn’t seem to be able to control himself when it comes to Harris.

Question No. 2: I think it will be interesting whether or not there is a massive gender gap, and I’m reminded of the [Geraldine] Ferraro-[George H.W.] Bush debate where women thought Ferraro had overwhelmingly won and men thought Bush had overwhelmingly won. The perceptions of Trump and Harris have such a gender gap already.

Kristin Davison, Republican consultant, Axiom Strategies:

Harris prides herself on being an experienced, sharp prosecutor. It’s part of her stump speech. So despite a low bar, she will need to live up to the picture she has painted — a fierce, albeit joyful, prosecutor. Americans are expecting a performance worthy of a Supreme Court argument — or at the very least, one that they would see on an episode of “The Practice” or “Law and Order.”

President Donald Trump, on the other hand, can benefit from media-induced low expectations. Since Harris became the nominee, her campaign has enjoyed a honeymoon period with the media, their base and donors. We’ve seen the gratuitous “Trump campaign in disarray” and “undisciplined Donald Trump” headlines. As a result, political pundits have lowered expectations, speculating Trump will go off script, go off message, or say something out of line. Simply refusing to take the bait can deliver a win.

Anthony Coley, former senior official in the Biden Justice Department:

Trump knows the debate stage well. He’s comfortable there. And Vice President Harris goes into this debate the same way as she started the campaign, and that’s as an underdog. I think her primary goal is to introduce herself to people who are just beginning to pay attention to the race. Who is she? What are her values? I also think she needs to be her authentic self while showing strength, being agile, while going on offense when the opportunity arises. Reminding people of the stakes of the election, of the chaos that Trump brings, of the uncertainty created by a second Trump presidency with even fewer checks to curb his worst instincts.

Charlie Gerow, Pennsylvania-based Republican strategist:

I’m going to be watching to see whether Kamala Harris can answer the myriad questions about her flopping on various positions, because it’s going to be incumbent on President Trump to call her out on the fact there are so many.

There’s a pretty high bar for President Trump, which is interesting, because the Democrats have tried to lower the bar for Kamala Harris and raise the bar for Trump simultaneously — they say he’s a great debater and that he should do well, and I expect he will. So this is a situation where Kamala Harris has to perform dramatically better than expectations.

Maria Cardona, Democratic strategist:

What the vice president has to watch out for is not getting baited into a back-and-forth on his ridiculous, slimy, xenophobic racist, misogynistic insults. I think she will be able to dodge those and bring it back to what she wants to communicate, how she wants to control the debate discussion. We already saw her do that in the interview with Dana Bash where she did not take the bait about one of Trump’s insults about her turning Black. She needs to use that tactic here as well, and it will be tougher because it will be so much more tempting to look at him straight in the eye and answer his insults head on. And there may be some clear opportunities to do that once or twice, but she cannot spend the whole time of the debate doing that.

The other challenge for her will be how much and how deep she goes in fact checking. She has to devise a mechanism where she fact checks quickly and then she pivots to what she wants to say.

Ryan Williams, Republican strategist and former aide to Mitt Romney:

[Harris has] really not faced much pressure so far in this campaign. She’s never been in a room before with Trump — if she can deliver a strong performance and stand up to him she’ll get another bump.

A win for Trump is to appear as presidential as Trump can be and clearly define her. He’s going to have to tie her up on her blatant policy flip-flops and the failures of the Biden administration. She owns those — she may try to put a little daylight between her and Biden to show that she’s her own person, but he needs to tie her to Biden.

Faiz Shakir, adviser to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.):

The contrast with Trump on the economy is critical for late deciders. I think they need to see not only a policy fight with corporate power, but the strength and determination in the way you answer the questions.

A win would mean that, after the debate, higher percentages of people are more likely to trust Harris over Trump on the economy and are more optimistic about the future of the country under her leadership.

Mike Dennehy, New Hampshire-based GOP strategist who worked on John McCain’s presidential bids:

Everyone is looking for Trump to contain himself. I’m looking for a repeat performance of his debate with Biden and to not be thrown off by the fact that she’s a different candidate. He’s got to stick to the exact same playbook.

We’ve all seen her debate with [then-Vice President Mike] Pence and she did a pretty good job trying to keep him off balance. And if she does that with Trump, I hope his reaction would be a little softer than he’s used to.

Antjuan Seawright, South Carolina-based Democratic strategist:

She must answer the questions that are asked of her, but also respond to him when appropriate, particularly when the lies come, but not allow that to be the only part of the conversation that people remember. Because it’s so easy to spend the time responding to Trump, but not driving the narrative or projecting what you want the people to know and remember about your agenda.

A win is no unforced errors. She has to really adopt a serious case of political nearsightedness and focus on the moment. I also think an important win for her would be to speak directly to the people on our street because that’s where elections are won, and ignore whatever narratives are coming in or could be during or after the debate that come from K Street.

Amy Tarkanian, Republican strategist and former Nevada GOP chair who is not supporting Trump:

Trump needs to have good manners. He’s his biggest downfall. This is his territory — he loves being on the stage. So I think he’s going to do really well. But he’s going to have to really mind his P's and Q's, especially since he’s going up against a female. He didn’t do very well with that against Hillary.

Leah Daughtry, Democratic operative:

I’ll be watching to detect the audience to which each candidate has chosen to appeal. Are they seeking to solidify their base? Appeal to undecideds and persuadables? Or are they looking to pick off voters from the other team? That will tell me their thoughts about the state of the race. As for expectations, Trump has proven to be very predictable — we pretty much know what he’s going to do and how he’s going to act. And I expect cool-as-a-cucumber Harris to be fully present, using her experience and preparation to share the kind of information that will help voters understand the contrast of their choices.