$35M and counting: New York House race tops nation in spending

ALBANY, New York — The hotly contested political battle between Republican Rep. Marc Molinaro and Democrat Josh Riley is the most expensive House race in the country — a contest that has taken a competitive turn since Vice President Kamala Harris moved to the top of the ticket.

The campaign has so far cost the candidates, House campaign arms and super PACs more than $35.5 million combined for TV and digital ads, and it has become a national proxy battle over abortion and the border.

Molinaro’s seat is among five districts New York Democrats want to flip this year in a bid to take power in the House.

And Republicans believe that Riley, who lost to Molinaro two years ago by less than 2 points, will benefit from Harris subbing in for Biden this summer — turning the campaign into a far more heated one.

GOP consultant Vince Casale, who is operating a super PAC in the district, predicted that while Harris might not fare as well as Biden did four years ago, she will help boost turnout for Riley.

“She’s not going to perform in this district as well as Biden did four years ago,” Casale said. “She brings the base back home for them.”

Spending in the race has meant local television in the regions that compose the district has been saturated with campaign ads in a state that is otherwise not in play for the presidential election.

Despite millions of dollars being spent, public polling in the district has been scant.

In July, prior to Biden leaving the race, Molinaro’s campaign released an internal survey to POLITICO that showed the Republican incumbent leading by 9 points. A poll conducted for the group U.S. Term Limits in early September found Riley leading Molinaro by 3 points — a virtual tie given the poll’s 4.6 percent margin of error.

Molinaro, meanwhile, has taken an aggressive approach on the border issue — going as far as embracing the unfounded claim made by vice presidential candidate JD Vance that Haitian immigrants are eating pets in Ohio.

But even as he tries to keep supporters of former President Donald Trump in the fold, Molinaro has also sought in a TV ad to reassure voters — including those who live in a Democratic-heavy portion of the district — that he does not support a national ban on abortion or IVF.

“One of the challenges is not only reaching out to all of these people, but you have to speak to the masses and know that the priorities and values can be vastly different from one region to the other,” Casale said.

The push to benefit from presidential turnout and millions in ad dollars has translated into a starkly negative race for two otherwise avuncular and unassuming candidates with centrist credentials.

Riley, a former Senate counsel, has been painted by Republicans as a “D.C. insider who helped write Biden’s border policies.” Molinaro has been portrayed by Democrats as someone who would “ban abortion nationwide — even in New York.”

Those claims are exaggerations, if not outright falsehoods. Both campaigns pump out “fact checks” to each others' ads. But those efforts have been drowned out by the avalanche of money.

Spending in the district has already eclipsed what it was in 2022, when combined the two parties spent $21.2 million. And there’s no indication the flow of cash is slowing down.

The House Republican-allied Congressional Leadership Fund has poured $11.1 million into the race this election cycle, making it the biggest spender in the district, according to the media tracking firm AdImpact. CLF’s infusion of cash into the district is the largest of any in the competitive House races in the state.

On Tuesday, the CLF announced it would drop another $3.5 million for TV air time in New York — money that could be directed to boost Molinaro in the coming weeks. The organization has spent a combined $32.5 million in New York House races this cycle.

"While elite DC lawyer Josh Riley cozied up to Democrat activists and pushed far-left progressive policies, Congressman Marc Molinaro has fought to lower taxes, cut costs, and secure the border,” CLF President Dan Conston said in a statement. “We're proud to support Congressman Molinaro again this cycle, as he sends carpetbagger Josh Riley packing a second time.”

On the Democratic side, the House Majority PAC has spent $5.1 million in the district — a level of investment that is on par with the hotly contested race on Long Island between Republican Rep. Anthony D’Esposito and Democrat Laura Gillen.

“Marc Molinaro is an anti-abortion extremist who has sold out NY-19 for 30 years,” House Majority PAC spokesperson CJ Warnke said. “That’s why this district is a prime flip opportunity.”

The district is a sprawling one, running from New York’s border with Massachusetts to the Southern Tier region near Pennsylvania. It covers five different media markets, including Albany, Syracuse, Binghamton and a portion of New York City — a geographic challenge that also contributes to the cost of airing ads.

A constellation of Democratic-aligned groups, including the House Democrats’ campaign committee, Riley’s own campaign and other organizations like House Majority Forward and Empire State Voices have combined to outspend Republicans in the district during the entirety of the election cycle — $18.7 million to $16.8 million.

Both candidates and their well-funded allies are in a race to define the opposition. That has translated into a slate of negative ads blasting Molinaro and Riley over reproductive issues and immigration.

And the money pouring into TV and digital spots for the candidates as compiled by AdImpact does not include the army of volunteers both parties are fielding in the district.

The state Democratic Committee has opened seven field offices in the district and has hired 12 full-time staffers.

Riley, an attorney who worked for the U.S. Senate, has been an on-message candidate making his second bid for the House. A prodigious fundraiser, his campaign has outspent Molinaro. Democrats have used their money to paint Molinaro as an abortion opponent even as the Republican has insisted he would not support any changes to current federal law that would restrict the procedure.

Molinaro’s campaign, meanwhile, has placed an emphasis on attacking Riley’s beltway-laden resume as a potential vulnerability by tying it to the swirling controversies around border enforcement.

“While Josh Riley got rich in DC, his open border policy killed New Yorkers and their jobs,” Molinaro said in a statement. “Voters are rightfully angry at him and money won't change that.”

Riley’s campaign has blasted these claims as untrue. Riley as a Senate counsel worked on portions of a bipartisan immigration package a decade ago centering around domestic violence provisions in the measure, his campaign said. The bill did not pass.

Riley said in an interview that he wants to appeal to Republicans — including Trump voters — who would otherwise be inclined to vote a straight GOP ticket. He also said voters are deeply engaged with the race. And he has not shied away — both on the stump and in campaign ads — from pledging to tackle border policy.

“It’s a very competitive district. It’s a very hard-fought race,” he said. “That’s how it should be. No one can win this district without appealing to people on the other side of the aisle.”