California voters strongly favor tougher penalties for drug use and theft. But their feelings are far more mixed on expanding rent control — and there is no clear front-runner in the 2026 race to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom, according to a new public poll .
The survey, conducted by researchers at the University of Southern California, California State University Long Beach and Cal Poly Pomona and exclusively shared with POLITICO, reflected a conservative shift in how Californians view criminal justice issues, despite remaining overwhelmingly Democratic.
Nearly 58 percent of the 1,685 likely voters surveyed support Proposition 36, a November ballot measure that would increase penalties for drug crimes and serial theft. The measure is backed by prosecutors and would roll back parts of a landmark 2014 initiative, Proposition 47, that reduced prison sentences.
Only 19 percent of voters said they opposed Prop 36, despite warnings from Newsom and top Democrats in the Legislature that it would return ineffective and overly punitive 1980s-era “war on drugs” policies to California. The apparently strong support for the initiative represents a marked shift from four years ago, when voters overwhelmingly rejected another tough-on-crime ballot measure, Proposition 20.
“It basically shows that we’re not always as liberal of a state as the national perception, certainly not as left-leaning progressive,” said Christian Grose, a political science professor at USC and the lead pollster. “There’s a lot of Democrats in California who have relatively conservative views on crime.”
That finding appears to be strongly influenced by voters' perceptions that crime is still increasing in the state, although pandemic spikes in reported crime have largely subsided.
The poll found nearly 52 percent of voters think that crime is at “historic highs” or higher than last year. Grose said that shows voter perception about crime don’t necessarily jive with stats showing decreases in many cities.
Other key highlights from the survey:
— The fate of Proposition 33 , which would allow cities to enact rent control for newer apartments, could go down to the wire. A slight plurality of voters, 37 percent, support the measure while 33 percent oppose it. Nearly a third of voters are undecided. The initiative would repeal a state law that generally prohibits rent control requirements on units built after early 1995. But opponents, led by an association of landlords and developers, argue the measure is written so broadly it would give cities the power to effectively block construction by making it too expensive for developers to build.
— The crowded 2026 race to succeed Newsom has no clear leader. One potential candidate ahead of the pack, with 14 percent support, is Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, who is leaving office this year after an unsuccessful Senate bid. Porter hasn’t said if she wants to run. The next highest possible contenders are Republicans: state lawmakers Brian Dahle, whom Newsom easily defeated in 2022, at 5 percent, followed by Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco at nearly 5 percent and former Fox News host Steve Hilton at 4 percent. Among Democrats, state Attorney General Rob Bonta is at 4 percent, followed by Xavier Becerra at 3 percent. The five declared Democratic candidates in the race — Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, former state Controller Betty Yee, former state Senate leader Toni Atkins and state schools superintendent Tony Thurmond — are trailing in the low single digits, suggesting their early jump on the race hasn’t built much name ID.
— Embattled Los Angeles District Attorney George Gascón is in dire shape heading into the final weeks of his reelection campaign. More than 44 percent of those surveyed support Nathan Hochman, a former federal prosecutor and a Republican-turned-independent. Only 20 percent support Gascón, less than his share in earlier polling. Grose, the pollster, said Gascón would likely have to “get literally every single undecided voter to win.” He said Gascón’s implosion is another data point showing how voters’ perception of crime has changed.
— Kamala Harris has energized Democrats since jumping to the top of the presidential ticket, which could influence close races down ballot. The poll found support for Harris is 5 points higher than it was for President Joe Biden earlier this year. About 57 percent of likely voters support Harris while 34 percent support former President Donald Trump. Grose said that enthusiasm bump from Harris could help Democrats in extra tight congressional and legislative races.
— On the vice presidential front, many Californians have positive or mixed feelings about Democratic nominee Tim Walz. The most common words voters associated with Walz were “coach/teacher” and “kind.” Among the most common words those surveyed used to describe J.D. Vance, Trump’s running mate: “liar” and “misogynist.”
— In the California Senate race , Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff is also on track to easily defeat Republican and former baseball star Steve Garvey, with 53 percent support relative to Garvey’s 34 percent.
The poll was conducted Sept. 12 to 25 and includes a 2 percent margin of error for statewide questions and a nearly 6 percent margin for questions specific to Los Angeles County.
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