Harris has slight lead in Pennsylvania while Trump keeps Arizona advantage, polls show

New polling from The New York Times/Siena College shows Donald Trump with a slight lead in Arizona, and Kamala Harris similarly ahead by a narrow margin in Pennsylvania — a divergence of the Rust and Sun Belt states that continues to point to a very close presidential race.

In Arizona, Trump is ahead, 51 percent to 46 percent, virtually unchanged from his 50 percent to Harris’ 45 percent result reported in a September poll. In the Pennsylvania poll, which was also cosponsored by the Philadelphia Inquirer, Harris leads, 50 percent to 47 percent.

Each poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The polls were conducted via telephone between Oct. 7 to 10, among 808 voters in Arizona and 857 voters in Pennsylvania.

Neither candidate scored highly on the favorability scale. In Pennsylvania, Harris notched a 49 percent favorability rating versus an identical percentage who viewed her unfavorably. For Trump, more voters view him unfavorably (54 percent) than favorably (45 percent).

The candidates’ popularity among voters is flipped in Arizona, where voters were split evenly on the former president (49 percent favorable to 49 percent unfavorable), while the vice president was slightly underwater (46 percent favorable to 51 percent unfavorable).

Despite Trump’s lead in Arizona, voters split from Republicans down the ticket, with 48 percent of respondents saying they would vote for the Democratic Senate candidate, Rep. Ruben Gallego , compared to 41 percent for Republican Kari Lake. In Pennsylvania’s Senate race, Democratic Sen. Bob Casey led Republican Dave McCormick by a margin that matches Harris’ edge over Trump at the top of the ticket: 48 percent to 44 percent.

The economy remained the primary issue of concern for voters in both states, with respondents expressing more faith in Trump’s ability to steer the economy than Harris. But in Pennsylvania, voters also indicated that abortion was a key concern — and Harris has a nearly 20-point lead over Trump on whom voters trust more to handle the issue.

Pennsylvania is a critical battleground — of the swing states, it has the greatest number of electoral votes — with both campaigns prioritizing the state in the leadup to the election. Harris led Trump by a nearly identical margin to current polling, 50 percent to 46 percent, in another New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll last month.