Inside the slow, super polite revolt against Justin Trudeau

OTTAWA — Justin Trudeau is staring down a caucus revolt, although the lawmakers behind it have tried to keep things quiet so as not to embarrass the prime minister.

Since Parliament returned this fall, a group of Liberal members of parliament has been organizing in closed rooms not far from the prime minister’s office, plotting how they might persuade him to go.

“It was supposed to be very private and never become public,” said one Liberal backbencher behind the scheme. “No one is out to humiliate the prime minister.”

No one has stepped up as a potential replacement for Trudeau, who has led the party since 2013. Would-be contenders are so far patiently waiting for their leader to leave on his own terms.

His falling fortunes place him in the ranks of many incumbent leaders in the West struggling amid a difficult post-pandemic economy, from former U.K. Tory Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to President Joe Biden, who was less quietly forced out of the U.S. presidential race.

POLITICO spoke with more than two dozen Liberal members of parliament who were granted anonymity so they could speak freely about the state of their caucus.

While the push to get Trudeau to leave is not pushy, the secret plan became front-page news after some strategic anonymous leaks . MPs were becoming increasingly frustrated with Trudeau and his chief of staff, Katie Telford, over their lack of political strategy, and wanted to catch their attention, so they tipped off the media of their plan to share a signed statement calling on him to resign.

Not all lawmakers in the 153-member Liberal caucus have seen the paperwork, but few say they are surprised. Everyone wants to hear Trudeau and Telford share their plans for the party's future, including how they’ll convince voters Liberals deserve a fourth term after almost nine years in office.

“People are looking at the forthcoming election as a change election. The big question is, what kind of change will the Liberals offer,” Liberal MP Ken Hardie told POLITICO.

“You could change the leader or you can change what the leader leads.”

Hardie would not tell POLITICO which option he prefers. He said he wants to first share his views with his caucus on Wednesday.

He may have to stand in line. That’s also when lawmakers are expected to confront Trudeau.

The face-off arrives after a year of slide. National opinion polls show Trudeau's likability is tanking following years of high inflation, a national housing shortage and stubbornly high rent and grocery costs.

Despite Canada's now having one of the lowest inflation rates in the G7 and job growth exceeding expectations, many Canadians don't feel they're better off now than they were when Trudeau was first elected in 2015. It's a point Trudeau's main political rival, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, keeps hammering, as he pushes a populist agenda featuring simple slogans.

The prime minister’s tailspin is a problem for the governing Liberals, which essentially became “the Trudeau party” after he led his third-place party to majority government status.

Liberal MP Chandra Arya wrote the caucus last week to say that while he "is not a fan of [the] establishment," Trudeau would have to do. Possible successors such as Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, Innovation Minister François-Philippe Champagne, Treasury Board President Anita Anand and former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney remain relatively unknown to Canadians.

"We don't have a quasi-designated successor like Kamala Harris waiting," he wrote in the email, which was obtained by POLITICO. "I foresee a vicious battle for leadership which will fracture the fragile party structure with vastly different ideas and personalities — the results will be disastrous."

The Liberal party has no mechanism to oust the prime minister, but some Liberal lawmakers say they hope he'll take the hint before they escalate their efforts, which so far have been timid at best.

"We have a culture of loyalty to the leader at all costs," said Lori Turnbull, a political science professor at Dalhousie University. "We have a much stronger tradition of party discipline than in the United States."

Just three MPs have publicly called on Trudeau to step down, and they have been selective about the media they speak to.

Two of the politicians come from Atlantic Canada, a region where Trudeau's signature carbon levy is unpopular , and a part of Canada that has seen a rise in immigration resulting in more demands on social and health care services among an older Canadian population.

Disgruntled MPs have refrained from abandoning the Liberals to sit as independents, or from voting against government bills to tank the party from the inside. And while no Cabinet minister has spoken out, several are said to be encouraging the efforts to get Trudeau out.

The lawmakers behind the scheme began plotting last month after the Liberals lost a stronghold seat in Montreal during a special election, a defeat that followed another by-election loss in Toronto in June.

The MPs were set off by the prime minister's insistence that the Liberal machine was going strong. "You could literally see everyone's jaw drop," said the lawmaker who has helped to organize the statement.

Another collection of MPs eager for change advocated for a softer approach. A larger group won out, insisting the caucus should directly ask Trudeau to step down. And if that doesn’t work, they say they have a backup plan though wouldn’t share details.

Earlier this week Trudeau told media it was not the time for the country to focus on growing dissent within his party. Canada announced Monday that it had expelled India’s high commissioner and five envoys after the RCMP revealed they have evidence linking members of India’s government to multiple homicides and other violence on Canadian soil.

“There will be a time to talk about internal party intrigue at another moment,” Trudeau said.

“Right now this government and indeed all parliamentarians should be focused on standing up for Canada’s sovereignty, standing against interference, and looking to be there to support Canadians in this important moment.”

Spokespeople for Trudeau did not respond to repeated requests for comment regarding the letter, but some MPs confirm they've spoken to the prime minister by phone as he attempts to manage not only his caucus, but their trust.