La Niña Watch Extended but Odds Decrease

It's been a summer of La Niña Watch , and despite recent doubts , the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is sticking to their prediction that the weather phenomenon will occur in Fall or Winter '24/'25.

However, according to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation Diagnostic Discussion released on August 8th, 2024, the chance of La Niña occurring is decreasing slightly, but it still seems rather likely.

The new forecast models predict a 66% chance of La Niña forming between September-October and a 74% chance of it forming between November-January. Those numbers are down 4% and 5% respectively, since July's forecast .

The Diagnostic Discussion from NOAA provides a synopsis on their findings:

"Based on updated guidance and recent observations, the forecast team predicts nearly equal chances for ENSO-neutral and La Niña in August-October 2024, with higher odds for La Niña in September-November. Although the rate of SST cooling has been slower than previously anticipated, below-average subsurface temperatures and low-level easterly wind anomalies remain conducive to La Niña development in the coming months. In summary, ENSO-neutral is expected to continue for the next several months, with La Niña favored to emerge during September-November (66% chance) and persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (74% chance during November-January; Fig. 7)."

La Niña is defined as the periodic cooling of the central Pacific ocean. When this occurs, the variable polar jet stream is forced north. This usually leads to wetter and colder winters in the Pacific Northwest and warmer and drier winters in the Southwest.

La Niña dictates weather across the entirety of the continent. Check out our breakdown of La Niña and how it could impact your winter here .

NOAA has released a lengthy slideshow of data and models to support their claim that La Niña will occur. Notably, they're tracking an increase of negative (cooler) sea surface temperatures (SST) in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

These negative SSTs will need to occur further west in what is considered the Central Pacific in order for La Niña to truly take hold, but the metaphorical writing is on the wall, so to say.

Before the La Niña hype gets too real, consider taking a moment to read Ian Greenwood's recent investigative piece on La Niña . While his findings weren't exactly what he was hoping for, the insight into long-range weather forecasting is truly valuable.

Related: La Niña Winter '24/'25: Ski Resorts in the Bullseye

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