La Niña Lite: Meteorologist Releases Winter '24/'25 Forecast

Meteorologist Chris Tomer has established himself as one of the ski industry's most reliable sources for weekly snow and weather forecasts.

Tomer's YouTube channel is dormant during the summer, but sprang back to life on September 9, 2024 when he released his Winter 2024-2025 Forecast. Check out why he thinks this winter will be dominated by 'La Niña Lite' in the video below.

It's no secret that a La Niña weather pattern is likely to take shape this winter, but Tomer adds valuable information in his 'La Niña Lite' prediction. Most importantly, Tomer emphasizes how a weak La Niña pattern "lends itself" to a Northwest flow of the jet stream that can, "really crank out some big snowfall."

This prediction doesn't differ from what we've seen from NOAA and other experts in recent weeks, but Tomer drills down the analysis to a ski resort level, something that sets him apart from many meteorologists that publish similar forecasts to YouTube.

Tomer uses a variety of maps to help the audience visualize where he believes the jet stream will set up this winter, and which ski resorts will benefit because of it. In his words, the jet stream will create a "sharp cutoff" between regions that experience above-average snowfall and those that won't.

Consistent with most La Niña winters , Tomer favors the Pacific Northwest and western reaches of the Northern Rockies to benefit most from this storm track, but a few notable regions have snuck in, so to say. Notably, Tomer believes that Utah's Wasatch Range (Alta Ski Area, Snowbird, Park City, etc.), Steamboat, Colorado, and Jackson Hole, Wyoming will experience above-average winters in terms of snowfall.

The same can't be said for Lake Tahoe, Southern California, Southern Utah, Central Colorado, and New Mexico. Tomer is predicting that these regions will miss out, and are expected to have average or below-average seasons. Not what you want to hear if you're a California skier such as myself, but Tomer reminds his audience throughout the video that his predictions are likely to change as we inch closer to winter.

Winter '24/'25 is still months away, but that's not stopping Tomer from making some bold predictions. The chart above details how much snow major ski resorts will receive compared to their annual average.

The following notable resorts are expected to have above-average seasons, according to Tomer. Each resort's expected snowfall total, based on Tomer's percentage above average, is listed below.

• Mt. Baker Ski Area, Washington (120%) = 801 inches
• Jackson Hole, Wyoming (120%) = 549 inches
• Whistler Blackcomb, British Columbia (120%) = 489 inches
• Timberline Lodge, Oregon (110%) = 454 inches
• Sun Valley, Idaho (110%) = 242 inches
• Big Sky, Montana (110%)= 440 inches
• Alta Ski Area, Utah (105%) = 525 inches
• Vail Mountain, Colorado (105%) = 371 inches

Tomer has also listed a number of notable resorts that are expected to receive below-average seasons in terms of snowfall. See below.

• Mammoth Mountain, California (90%) = 360 inches
• Taos, New Mexico (80%) = 240 inches
• Brian Head, Utah (80%) = 288 inches

We've said it once, but we'll say it again— don't fret if Tomer's forecasts aren't favorable for your favorite ski area or resort. We're still months out from the season, and actual weather patterns will differ from what is laid out here.

With that said, keep it here at POWDER for all of the long range weather forecasts you're looking for as we approach the Winter '24/'25 season. It will be here before you know it! Are you ready?

Related: When to Expect Your First Snowfall

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