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La Niña Odds Increased in NOAA's Latest Update
By Matt Lorelli,
8 days ago
The talk of Summer 2024 has been the impending La Niña and how it will affect weather over the course of Winter '24/'25.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) updated their La Niña guidance on September 16, 2024. The report states that La Niña has a 71% chance of emerging in September-November and is, "expected to persist through January-March 2025."
The model above represents how La Niña affects the variable Polar Jet Stream. The phenomenon sends wetter storms and colder temperatures to the Northwest and the opposite for the Southwest.
Photo&colon NOAA
NOAA's August guidance forecasted a 66% chance of La Niña forming in September-October of 2024 and a 74% chance of it forming in November 2024-January 2025.
La Niña is in effect when Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) drop below a certain threshold in the Pacific Ocean. NOAA observed near-average SSTs throughout the month of August, but expects temperatures to drop between September and November.
The news will surely have skiers in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies dancing with glee. La Niña tends to pound these regions with cold and wet snow storms due to a northerly jet stream that acts as a powder producing factory. In fact, Mt. Baker Ski Area, Washington set a world record during the La Niña winter of '98/'99 with 1,140 in (95 ft./29m) of total snowfall.
The photo on the right shows just how deep the snow piled up during Winter '98/'99 at Mt. Baker Ski Area.
Photos courtesy Mt&period Baker Ski Area
It's fun to get excited about the potential for endless powder days, but NOAA cautions that North America will most likely experience a "weak La Niña". Weaker La Niñas are, "less likely to result in conventional winter impacts," but NOAA doesn't completely rule out the possibility of the phenomenon affecting weather patterns throughout the winter and into the early spring. NOAA's predictions support meteorologist Chris Tomer's forecast for a 'La Niña Lite' winter, which POWDER covered last week.
The La Niña hype can be nauseating, but POWDER is committed to helping you make sense of the madness as we head into the Winter '24/'25 season. Check back in with us regularly for the latest NOAA guidance, long-range forecast models , and predictions from ski-focused meteorologists throughout the Fall and Winter.
If you're stressing about your ski season being negatively affected by La Niña, remember this— it's going to snow, it's going to be cold, and you're going to ski, no matter how La Niña shakes out. Conditions might not be incredible, but slide on snow you will, and that's worth celebrating. Winter. Is. Coming!
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