NOAA’s Latest Update Looks Encouraging Skiers

Each month, NOAA updates its seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks, breaking the year into three-month chunks with broad, non-specific meteorological predictions.

Today, September 19, 2024, the agency launched its updated outlooks. Take a look at the predictions for November-December-January and January-February-March.

NOAA's November-December-January 2025 Seasonal Outlooks

NOAA's January-February-March 2025 Seasonal Outlooks

Both outlooks mostly track with the anticipated La Niña, which NOAA now believes has a 71% chance of emerging between September and November. During a La Niña, the Northwest tends to see cooler and wetter weather—the opposite is true for the South.

The Pacific Northwest—Washington, in particular—is in a strong position based on these outlooks. While temperatures could swing either way during the November through January period, predicted above-average precipitation is consistent through March (white areas, in NOAA’s seasonal outlooks, don’t mean “average.” Instead, they indicate that forecasters think each outcome—above average, near average, below average—are equally likely). A greater chance of below-average temperatures arrives during December in the Pacific Northwest, perhaps sucking the moisture of that famous Cascade Concrete.

The East might be in a tougher spot. While above-average precipitation is anticipated through January (it gets a bit more muddled beyond that point), NOAA also calls for warmer-than-usual temperatures in the region. Taken together, that combination could indicate the arrival of every skier’s worst nightmare: rain. Southern ski resorts in New Mexico and Arizona—where warm and dry weather is predicted—may see similarly challenging conditions.

None of this is guaranteed 100%. NOAA itself noted in a blog post explaining, “In the real world, the probability for a single category will never be 100 percent. We will never be able to say a month in advance that there is a 100 percent chance of a wetter-than-average May, for instance. The climate is not that predictable.” In other words, random chance will always have its say when we’re discussing weather. You can think of NOAA’s seasonal outlooks as loaded dice—they indicate that the odds are slanted in one direction. That caveat may or may not be welcome news, depending on where your home ski area is.

There’s another confounding factor this winter. The La Niña will likely be weak (La Niña strength is determined via ocean temperatures). During a weak La Niña, winter weather impacts are less reliable , meaning the usual La Niña pattern may be more inconsistent during the upcoming ski season. "A weaker La Niña implies that it would be less likely to result in conventional winter impacts, though predictable signals could still influence the forecast guidance," reads a passage from an NOAA ENSO diagnostic discussion issued on September 12th.

Again, that’s either great news or terrible news. For now, though, all we can really do is hold tight and think snow.

Related: La Niña Odds Increased in NOAA's Latest Update

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