The likelihood of La Niña forming by September of 2024 was above 80% in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's April 2024 update.
It's been six months since, and La Niña has yet to emerge. In fact, in the October 10, 2024 update to NOAA's El Niño/Southern Oscillation Diagnostic Discussion, the likelihood of La Niña has decreased to just 60%.
La Niña occurs when Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) cool in the 'Key Monitoring Region' seen above. This animation shows changing SSTs from July 1-September 29, 2024. The blue colors indicate below-average temperatures and support NOAA's belief that a weak La Niña even will occur in the Fall or Winter of 2024.
Photo&colon NOAA
NOAA updates their El Niño/Southern Oscillation Diagnostic Discussion monthly.
In the September update, the administration stated that La Niña had a 71% chance of emerging between September-November and was expected to last throughout January-March.
In the October update , NOAA has tempered expectations and now states that La Niña has a 60% chance of emerging in the September-November window. The administration believes that once La Niña emerges it will likely persist through January-March of 2025, but that it will most likely be a "weak event".
"As a result of the warmer predictions and the recent weakening of equatorial trade winds, the team still favors a weak event, but has lowered the chances of La Niña," writes NOAA in the October update. "A weaker La Niña implies that it would be less likely to result in conventional winter impacts, though predictable signals could still influence the forecast guidance (e.g., CPC's seasonal outlooks)."
NOAA's graphs above show a gradual decrease in Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) anomalies for the majority of the Niño regions. The anomalies for these particular areas are what determine if an El Niño (above average SSTs), La Niña (below average SSTs), or La Nada (average SSTs) is present.
Photo&colon NOAA
NOAA's belief that a weak La Niña will form should be of particular interest to skiers across North America. As quoted above, the weather impacts of a weak La Niña event tend to differ from a conventional or strong La Niña.
Meaning, it's still too early to get our hopes up or down about how this particular La Niña event will affect our ski seasons. That's most likely good news for folks in the Southwest that were expecting a warm and dry season, and the opposite for Pacific Northwest powder hounds that were gearing up for a season to remember.
With that said, ski-focused meteorologist Chris Tomer believes that even a weak, or 'La Niña lite' as he calls it, will lead to increased snow and colder temperatures in the PNW and Northern Rockies.
Who's ready to shovel? Winter is coming and snow will fall. Don't let the La Niña forecasts get you down.
Photo&colon Shutterstock&soloticki
We're still a little more than a month out from the ski season getting underway, but the hype is certainly building. Keep it here at POWDER for La Niña updates, snow forecasts, gear reviews , daily skiing news, and more. We've got you covered throughout the Winter '24/'25 season and beyond!
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