NOAA releases predictions for upcoming winter season amid snow drought

CHARLOTTE (QUEEN CITY NEWS) – The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has released its predictions for the upcoming winter season.

NOAA is forecasting a warmer and drier than average winter season for the Carolinas. Which means we could be in for less snow this year.

This is nothing new for Charlotte. The Queen City has gone 992 days and counting without a single snowflake. Charlotte has not seen snow since January 30th, 2022. The longest snow drought in Charlotte’s history. Raleigh and Greensboro have also not seen snow in 992 days.

Even colder spots like Asheville have struggled to see snow over the last two winter seasons, with just trace amounts reported.

There has been a noticeable drop in average snowfall over the last 50 years in Charlotte. In just the last 5 years, Charlotte has averaged less than an inch of snow.

NOAA’s prediction this year is based on a potential for La Nina this winter.

The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a 60 percent chance of an onset of La Nina, which is when ocean waters in the Eastern Tropical Pacific are cooler than average. NOAA is projecting a weaker La Nina, but it could still have an impact on winter weather.

During a La Nina, trade winds are stronger off the coast of Peru. This causes the warmer ocean waters in the Eastern Tropical Pacific to shift further west towards Indonesia. As warmer water shifts west, this allows cooler water to upwell to the sea surface, which leads to cooler ocean temperatures there.

This pattern causes the jet stream to lift further north across the U.S., which leads to more of a dip in the jet stream across the Northwest Pacific and more of a rise in the jet stream across the Eastern U.S.

That tends to lead to a cooler and wetter pattern for the Northwest Pacific, with a warmer and drier pattern for the Eastern U.S.

When reviewing NOAA’s winter outlook, the organization certainly is trending towards more of a La Nina climate pattern.

It is important to note that La Nina is one of several other variables that can impact snowfall. Other climate patterns can also influence how much winter weather your area receives.

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