MLB Home Run Derby betting odds and prediction: Mets’ Pete Alonso favorite to win

The 2024 Home Run Derby features a star-studded field, with many of the game's top players and young superstars set to compete on Monday night in Arlington. Three of the eight sluggers rank in the top 10 in HRs this season.

Gunnar Henderson, with 28 homers, is third this year, behind Aaron Judge (34) and Shohei Ohtani (29). Marcell Ozuna (26) and Jose Ramirez, are fourth and seventh, respectively.

The HR Derby favorite, though, is the Mets' Pete Alonso, who ranks 17th with 19 dingers in 2024.

Here are live odds for the HR Derby, plus analysis of the betting favorites and longshots, and our prediction for who will win this year's competition.

Odds to win 2024 Home Run Derby

Here are the live odds for the 2024 Home Run Derby available from the best online sportsbooks.

Betting favorites to win HR Derby

Alonso, Ozuna, and Bobby Witt Jr. are priced at the top of the HR Derby odds board:

Pete Alonso

Odds to win HR Derby:
Odds to hit longest HR:

Alonso is the only player in the field to have won the competition before, earning consecutive titles in 2019 and 2021. The Mets first baseman has elite power, with a max exit velocity speed of 116.3. But his other power metrics have dipped since he last won the Derby in 2021, and while he is the betting favorite, we don't see a third title happening this season.

Marcell Ozuna

Odds to win HR Derby:
Odds to hit longest HR:

Ozuna can crush the baseball and is having one of the best seasons of his professional career, hitting .303 with 26 home runs, 77 RBIs and a .960 OPS. The DH is competing in his first-ever Home Run Derby, and at age 33, this may be his one and only shot. With his size and smooth swing, Ozuna can crank baseballs out without max effort. He has a great chance to compete for the win on Monday night.

Bobby Witt Jr.

Odds to win HR Derby:
Odds to hit longest HR:

The Royals shortstop has improved every season of his career. Now in his third full season as a pro, Witt Jr. is hitting .323, with 16 home runs and 63 RBIs. He leads the field with a max exit velocity this season of 116.9. He also has the longest home run of anyone in the field, having hit one 468 feet this season. Don't forget that Witt Jr. is a hometown guy who grew up in the DFW area. That should give him some extra motivation.

2024 Home Run Derby longshots

Jose Ramirez

Odds to win HR Derby:
Odds to hit longest HR:

Ramirez has the second-longest odds of winning the Derby but has the third most home runs of anyone in the field, with 23 this season. All 23 of his homers this season were long enough to have been home runs at Globe Life Field. He has the second-highest max exit velocity in the field at 116.6 and the fourth-longest home run. His odds are potentially being driven down because of his first-round exit two seasons ago.

Consider this, though: He lost 18-17 in the first round to Juan Soto, who went on to win the Derby. Don't discount that he is one of the few players in the field with previous experience in this competition. Ramirez is definitely a fantastic value bet with the second-longest odds.

2024 HR Derby prediction: Marcell Ozuna takes the trophy

Ozuna has the size and smooth swing not to burn too much energy in the early rounds but still advance over the competition. Smaller players often have to use too much effort, and that burns them out over the long contest. That's why we like Ozuna to win tonight's 2024 Home Run Derby.