NHC shifts the placement of potential tropical development, Includes more of Gulf of Mexico

RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) — While chances remained at 60 percent Wednesday for a tropical wave in the Atlantic to form into a tropical depression or named system, a lot of uncertainty remains for areas from the southeast U.S. to the Flordia Panhandle.

The large tropical wave Thursday over Puerto Rico is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, the National Hurricane Center said Thursday morning.

Development of the system is not expected in the next two days, but over the next 7 days, there is a medium chance the wave could become a tropical depression this weekend or early next week, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center said.

The system is moving generally west-northwestward towards the Bahamas and Cuba — an area “more conducive for development,” forecasters said.

But, there are many variables still in play. One of two models examined by the CBS 17 Storm Team had a major change in the track on Wednesday of a potential system.

The American or GFS model, shows a southern track for any system that develops — taking it eventually into the Gulf of Mexico and then to the west coast of Florida on Monday, according to CBS 17 Meteorologist Rachel Duensing.

The European model showed “a big shift” from just earlier in the day Wednesday, Duensing said.

That model now shows the system moving over the Greater Antilles before also turning into the Gulf of Mexico and hovering near the Flordia Panhandle.

Also, Duensing said two key questions lead to uncertainty.

“We don’t know exactly where the system will form … where will the center actually develop,” she said. “Because of that uncertainty, models can’t decide where to take the system because, again, it can’t agree on where the center will be or where it will go.”

She also said the timing is critical.

“Development is not expected at the earliest this weekend — but if it has too much interaction with land while trying to form, that can be a challenge for it to form,” Duensing said.

Once the center of a storm forms “we’re going to have a much better idea of what to expect,” she added.

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