'Shrinkage': CNN data analyst shows surprising decline in Trump support in key demographic

CNN data analyst Harry Enten highlighted some surprising recent polling results that could help Vice President Kamala Harris offset potential losses among Black men in the 2024 presidential election.

Specifically, Enten pointed to polling showing that Trump's support among white voters without a college degree has been narrowing over the last eight years.

While white non-college voters still make up the bulk of Trump's base, he won them by 31 percentage points in 2020 after winning them by 33 points in 2016 -- and recent polls show Trump winning this demographic by 27 points this year.

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"Now that may not seem like a lot," acknowledged Enten. "But given that we're seeing these double-digit gains among Black voters or among Hispanic voters in some of the polls, the fact that we're seeing this core group of supporters actually moving away from him... I think that's a rather interesting development."

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"Shrinkage," host John Berman commented wryly before asking Enten why even a small loss of support from non-college white voters could make a real difference in the 2024 race.

"Because look at what percentage of the electorate they make up!" Enten replied. "Look at this: non-college white voters make up 40 percent of the electorate. That's more than college whites at 29 percent, all other groups, voters of color, at 28 percent."

The abundance of non-college white voters is even more prevalent in the key "blue wall" battleground states of Pennsylvania , Wisconsin, and Michigan, where such voters make up more than half of the electorate.

"So if you're seeing movement in the Great Lakes battleground states among non-college whites, that could be a very big development," he said.

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