Analysis-After ban, Thai opposition party likely to fight in parliament, not streets

By Panu Wongcha-um

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Four years ago, when Thai opposition party Future Forward was dissolved by the Constitutional Court for trying to amend a law protecting the powerful monarchy from criticism, supporters took to the streets, triggering months of civil unrest.

A repeat of these mass protests is unlikely, however, even after the same court on Wednesday disbanded Future Forward's successor, Move Forward, because this time the opposition group holds the most seats in parliament and its stalwarts are preparing to fight their cause in the house, and at the ballot box.

"We just went through it four years ago. So we're not new," party leader Pita Limjaroenrat told Reuters before the ruling. "I want to prove to the establishment, and also to the world, that dissolving parties is futile."

Had he not been blocked by the military-appointed senate, Pita would have become Thailand's prime minister after Move Forward, which over the past four years morphed from a youth-driven movement that came in third in the first vote since a 2014 military coup, won last year's general elections.

Even after the ruling, the party remains the largest voting bloc in parliament, and has already said that it would set up a new political vehicle to accommodate its 143 lawmakers.

Under Thai parliamentary rules, these lawmakers can move to any political party of their choice, a defection that its opponents will seek to induce, analysts said.

In 2020, just 10 out of 81 Future Forward lawmakers defected to the conservative coalition that was in power. This time, party leaders say they believe everyone will stay on board.

"We haven't checked the names but we are very confident that everyone will come with us," Move Forward deputy leader Sirikanya Tansakul told reporters on Wednesday.

Move Forward's progressive agenda brought Thailand's influential monarchy into the mainstream political discourse with its campaign promise to reform the strict lese majeste law.

Its 2023 victory at the polls on this agenda built on the easing of taboos around the monarchy that was induced by the 2020 protests against Future Forward's dissolution.

The disbanding of Move Forward is the latest setback for Thailand's major political parties, which are embroiled in a two-decade battle for power against a nexus of influential conservatives, old money families and the royalist military.

Over the last 18 years, four prime ministers have been dismissed by coups and court decisions.

"The decision is not a surprise," said Matthew Wheeler, an analyst at conflict-resolution organisation Crisis Group, about the court ruling.

'PRESSURE COOKER'

In the days ahead of the court ruling, Pita had exuded confidence that both he and the party would win the case, which originated from an election commission complaint over Move Forward's campaign to amend the lese majesty law.

In January, the same court ruled that the party's plan to reform the law was unconstitutional, prompting Move Forward to abandon its campaign promise. Disbanding it was the next step.

Move Forward deputy leader Sirikanya said that the party that will be born out of Move Forward's ashes could do things differently, but the foundation would remain the same: "We will continue the core ideology."

The party had already identified a pool of dozens of candidates from where it can create a pipeline of leaders for multiple levels, ensuring that any new political vehicle that it backs can swiftly ready itself to fight elections, Pita told Reuters last month.

When it was initially formed, Move Forward's main political opposition consisted mainly of military-backed parties that sought to stifle its rise.

Now it is also a threat to the ruling Pheu Thai party, backed by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra who made a dramatic return to Thailand last year just as it took power.

"It's a pressure cooker," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University. "Because on the one hand, popular support for Move Forward will expand."

"Then the suppression of whatever becomes of Move Forward will also increase," he said, "The ruling elites, they don't seem to care about party dissolutions, military coups ... as long as they can stay in power."

(Reporting by Panu Wongcha-um, Writing by Devjyot Ghoshal; editing by Miral Fahmy)