Analysis-Argentina's fragmented Peronists seek path back to political relevance

By Nicolás Misculin and Lucinda Elliott

BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) - Argentina's Peronists, chastened by a painful election loss last year, are trying to find a unifying message and leader to counter libertarian President Javier Milei, attacking his spending cuts and talking up local initiatives.

But so far they've failed to land any serious blows.

Milei, a bombastic outsider who favors austerity to get Argentina's parlous finances back on track, smashed the status quo when he took power last December, ousting the left-leaning Peronists who have dominated local politics since Juan Peron and his wife "Evita" founded the movement in the 1940s.

Now the main opposition force in Congress, the Peronists are looking for a way to earn back the trust of Argentines after they presided over years of economic volatility, high inflation, and international isolation. Despite huge cuts to state spending, rising poverty, a deepening recession, and a clampdown on welfare, Milei remains popular.

Reuters spoke to six Peronist insiders from diverse camps within the bloc, who said the broad movement needed to replace "failed" old models and find a way to unite disparate power bases from its militant left to moderate center.

"We have to consolidate a clear message that there is an alternative to Milei and another path," said Peronist deputy Diego Giuliano, an ally of last year's defeated Peronist presidential candidate and former economy minister Sergio Massa.

The Peronists still have no clear leader roughly a year ahead of mid-term elections that could redraw the balance of power in Congress.

Massa has baggage from the election defeat and the economic slide he failed to halt. His old boss, ex-President Alberto Fernandez, has been charged with violence and threats against his ex-partner, which he denies.

Divisive Peronist grandee and former two-term president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner remains influential, but has a six-year jail sentence from a high-profile graft case in 2022 hanging over her head, which she is appealing.

That's left many within the movement looking for change.

"We can't keep repeating the old failed political models," said a Peronist official from the province of Buenos Aires who asked not be named, admitting recent scandals had been "damaging". "There must be a renewal in terms of what Peronism has to offer society."

DIFFICULT PERIOD AHEAD

What the new model would look like is less clear.

Peronist Buenos Aires governor Axel Kicillof has attacked Milei's spending cuts as "cruel" and pushed state investment in his own province. Activist lawyer Juan Grabois, who ran unsuccessfully to be a candidate for the main Peronist coalition last year, has emphasized rising poverty and hunger, slamming what he calls Milei's "planned misery" policies.

La Rioja regional governor Ricardo Quintela has rolled out a rival regional currency to support local spending, while Martin Llaryora, governor of Cordoba province, has been preaching moderation to try to win allies across party lines.

For now, the Peronists seem to be largely biding their time and hoping Milei slips up.

So far, he's been unobliging. A Universidad Torcuato Di Tella tracker showed his popularity rose strongly in August. Another in September from pollster Analogias gave him a stable positive rating around 48%.

Guillermo Justo Chaves, a government official under Alberto Fernandez, said the recent scandals had hurt centrist Peronists and that "new faces" were needed.

"Renewal is necessary for the future of the bloc," he said.

Silvina Batakis, a minister in Buenos Aires province, said the bloc was unlikely to unite behind a single leader in time for the 2025 midterms, although she pointed to Kicillof - a long-time political figure who was economy minister under Cristina Fernandez - as having the highest profile among the likely contenders.

Many Peronist leaders were simply in "survival strategy" mode, said political analyst Sergio Berensztein. "Peronism is likely heading for a difficult period," he said.

But Peronism has reinvented itself multiple times over the decades and survived tough times before, most recently in opposition to conservative President Mauricio Macri from 2015-2019.

"Peronism will go into (the midterms) largely united in most of the provinces," said Agustin Rossi, a former Cabinet chief and vice presidential candidate. "We are better off than we have been at other times."

(Reporting by Nicolas Misculin and Lucinda Elliott; Editing by Adam Jourdan and Rosalba O'Brien)