Is the race for WA governor down to two? Semi Bird thinks the polling is ‘garbage’

A Tri-Cities candidate running for Washington governor is at risk of getting locked out of the general election, a new statewide poll suggests .

Semi Bird , the Richland Republican who earned his party’s endorsement earlier this year at the statewide convention, is polling at 10%.

That’s 18 points behind fellow Republican Dave Reichert , who’s polling at 28% and is poised to advance to the general election along with Bob Ferguson , the leading Democrat.

The poll was conducted last week by Public Policy Polling for the Northwest Progressive Institute (NPI), a progressive think tank based in Redmond.

It surveyed 581 likely primary voters by text message and landline phone. It lists a +/- 4% margin of error.

Bird, the retired U.S. Green Beret ousted last year in a controversial Richland School Board recall, could not be reached by the Tri-City Herald by phone and emails about the poll results.

Bird has hovered from 7 to 11% in multiple professional polls conducted since the beginning of the race.

During a live streamed podcast on Friday , Bird dismissed claims he could not win, mentioning 2016 presidential polling.

“Poll is wrong, garbage,” he told his listeners.

WA governor race

The new numbers add assurance to what could be the most competitive Washington gubernatorial general election in a generation.

Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee has chosen to bow out after three terms, adding an aura of political vulnerability to this year’s race, which has been labeled “Lean D” by the Cook Political Report .

Political experts and polling suggest Reichert would be competitive in a general election match-up with Ferguson.

With a week until the Aug. 6 primary election, registered voters already have received and begun returning their ballots. They have 28 candidates to choose from in the race for governor.

About 7% of the state’s 4.8 million voters have voted so far, according to Monday morning numbers , and they have until 8 p.m. election day to return ballots by mail or to a county-authorized drop box.

NPI’s poll also included a hypothetical general election head-to-head for both Bird and Reichert with the Democratic frontrunner.

In a Reichert-Ferguson general election match up, Ferguson (49%) beats out Reichert (43%) by 6 points. In that scenario, about 8% said they were “not sure” who they’d choose.

The Tri-City Republican does worse.

In a Bird-Ferguson match up, Ferguson (52%) beats Bird (38%) by 14 points, with about 10% responding “not sure.”

It’s a margin of support that’s similar to where Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump land in the race for president in Washington state.

“Reichert is, however, a much more credible and competitive candidate for the Republicans than Semi Bird, who the party endorsed at its convention,” writes NPI founder Andrew Villeneuve.

Bird’s favorability among primary election voters is also in question in this latest poll, despite being the earliest candidate to declare in the race.

Only about 19% of survey takers had a “favorable” opinion of the Richland candidate, 38% said they had an “unfavorable” opinion, and 25% said they had “not heard” of him.

Reichert is a retired U.S. congressman who represented Washington’s 8th Congressional District — a swing district — for seven terms. He also served two terms as King County sheriff and helped to catch Gary Ridgway, the infamous “Green River Killer.”

Bob Ferguson, Washington’s current three-term attorney general, leads the primary in NPI’s poll with 39% support. That’s an increase of about 8 points since November.

In the months since Ferguson and Reichert jumped into the race, Bird has lost grasp of his financial front runner status.

Ferguson’s campaign has raised more than $8.7 million with $2.6 million cash on hand, reported as of July 15. Reichert meanwhile trails with more than $4.3 million raised and $836,000 cash on hand.

Bird’s fundraising efforts have not kept up with his campaign’s operations. While he’s raised $661,000 over the last 20 months, as of July 15 he had just $78,000 cash on hand .

Semi Bird background

Bird remains popular among the most grassroots sect of his party going into the primary election, having carved out a niche as a populist play maker with big ideas to reform Washington’s progressive government.

Despite being ousted by Richland voters by a 9-point margin last year in a recall election for violating Washington’s indoor mask mandate, Bird has secured the endorsements of both chapters of the Benton County and Franklin County Republicans.

But Bird also has come under heavy pressure — from even some in his own party — to step away from the race following a series of media reports highlighting his background from decades ago.

Most recently, Jason Rantz of 770 KTTH in Seattle published several bombshell reports detailing allegations that Bird was reprimanded by the Department of Defense for fraud to advance his career, and that he engaged in “stolen valor” by wearing unearned badges and awards.

In the 1980s, Bird, who is Black, was court martialed while serving in the U.S. Marines for striking a superior who used a racial epithet against him. He was sentenced to one month of hard labor and was reduced in rank.

The Seattle Times and Tri-City Herald also dug into Bird’s civilian life, detailing incidents that occurred in the 1990s after Bird served in the U.S. Marines.

Bird was charged in 1993 with a single misdemeanor count of bank larceny for using his father’s name on a credit application. He spent two years on probation, agreeing to pay fines, in a plea agreement.

A few years later, he was arrested and charged with felony gun theft for failing to return his law enforcement-issued firearm after leaving his reserve deputy role at the Yakima County Sheriff’s Office, the Herald reported.

That charge was later dropped after the sheriff’s office retrieved the weapon.