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How the presidential race could influence who controls city councils in Lynchburg, Roanoke and Salem
By Dwayne Yancey,
19 days ago
Is Virginia “in play” in the presidential race? Donald Trump thinks so. He’s coming to Chesapeake to campaign on Friday and is reportedly opening 11 campaign offices around the state. The Joe Biden campaign apparently thinks so; first lady Jill Biden made an appearance in Virginia Beach on Thursday. The polls certainly say so: A Roanoke College poll recently showed the race tied in the state; so did a subsequent Fox News poll.
Virginia may well make a difference in the presidential race, but the presidential race may also make a difference in Virginia — specifically in city council races in Lynchburg, Roanoke and Salem.
Here’s how.
Virginia now requires that municipal elections, which once had been in May, be held in November. That boosts voter participation — those May elections had long been low-turnout affairs. A November election, especially one that coincides with a presidential election, also increases the likelihood of straight-ticket voting. How many people have the bandwidth to pay attention to a council race when there’s a presidential race going on, especially this one? Let’s take a look at why and how the presidential race might influence council races in these three cities:
Lynchburg: Ward I will be key to who controls the council
Lynchburg’s seven-member council consists of three members elected at large and four elected by wards. The three at-large members, all currently Republicans, were elected in November 2022. This will be the first time that the four ward-based members (currently two Republicans and two generally identified as Democrats) will be elected in a November election.
Until now, the attention has been focused on Ward IV, where Republican incumbent Chris Faraldi has now survived a renomination challenge. In November, he’ll face Democrat April Watson. However, this is also a Republican-voting ward. We can’t use the 2020 results to measure that because Virginia law then counted early votes as part of an absentee precinct, so the precinct totals that show up on the State Board of Elections website only reflect the in-person voting, which skews Republican. State law has since changed to count those early votes as part of whatever precinct the voter is in. However, the practical effect is that we can’t use the 2020 precinct results for this type of close-up analysis, so I’ll have to go back to 2016 when early voting as we know it now didn’t exist.
In the 2016 presidential election, Ward IV voted 55.2% for Donald Trump.
Ward III is represented by Republican Jeff Helgeson, who faces Democrat James Coleman. In 2016, Ward III voted 67.3% for Trump.
Based on those numbers, Faraldi and Helgeson (who are great rivals, by the way) will both be favored in their respective races. The challenge for Democrats will be, first, changing voters’ minds about Trump and, failing that, persuading enough Trump voters to vote for a Democratic candidate for the council.
Ward II is represented by Democrat Sterling Wilder, who will face Republican Rodney Hubbard. In 2016, that ward voted 72.6% for Hillary Clinton. Wilder will clearly be favored here again.
That brings us to Ward I, where incumbent MaryJane Dolan (elected as an independent but often identified as a Democrat) is retiring, and we have an open seat up for grabs between Democrat Randy Smith, Republican Jacqueline Timmer and independent Cameron Howe. In 2016, Ward I voted 45.7% for Trump and 43.0% for Clinton, with other candidates getting the remainder. As noted, we can’t use the 2020 precinct results for analysis because they don’t include the early votes. However, we know overall that Trump in 2020 ran about the same in Virginia as he did four years earlier while Joe Biden ran somewhat better than Clinton. We also know that the May 2020 election for the Ward I seat was close; Dolan won with 52% of the vote.
This seems a very safe prediction: Ward I will be where the action this fall in Lynchburg. Not only is this a closely contested ward, with an independent complicating the mix, but it may also be the ward that makes the difference in who controls city council and who the next mayor is.
As noted many times before, there are essentially three factions on Lynchburg council: Republicans Faraldi and Mayor Stephanie Reed in one, Republicans Helgeson and Marty Misjuns in another, Democrats Dolan and Wilder in another, with Republican Larry Taylor as a wild card. On some issues, all the Republicans agree. On others, they don’t. For instance, when it came time to elect a mayor in early 2023, the vote was 4-3 in favor of Reed over Helgeson, with the two Democrats (Dolan and Wilder) voting with the two Republicans (Faraldi and Reed).
We know Dolan won’t be back, so if that vote lineup remains the same, then whoever wins the Ward I seat could hold the difference. If it’s Smith, the Democrat, we might well have the same 4-3 vote for Reed. If it’s Timmer, the Republican, who knows? Who she favors as mayor might be a good question for Ward I voters to ask. That mayor’s seat aside, replacing Dolan with Timmer would expand the council’s Republican majority from 5-2 to 6-1 and could change the dynamics on council in other ways; replacing Dolan with Smith would keep it 5-2. Ward I voters can decide which way they want to go — but if voters are in a straight-ticket-voting frame of mind, then the presidential race could well make the difference in the tone of the next Lynchburg City Council. Put another way: how Ward I voters feel about Biden and Trump also could determine who the city’s next mayor is.
Roanoke: A three-way mayor’s race
In the Star City, all seven council members are elected at-large, and the mayor is one of those (unlike Lynchburg, where the council selects the mayor from one of its own). The terms are staggered, so this year the city will be electing a mayor and then separately filling three council seats.
The mayor’s race is a three-way contest among former mayor David Bowers (running now as a Republican after switching parties), council member Joe Cobb (Democrat) and council member Stephanie Moon Reynolds (independent).
Roanoke has reliably voted Democratic in presidential years: 61.8% for Biden, 56.5% for Clinton, 60.1% for Barack Obama in 2012 and 61.2% for Obama in 2008. That would seem beneficial for Cobb, although a three-way race does complicate things. We also know that in the 2020 mayoral race, the Democratic candidate trailed behind the Democratic nominee for president. That November, Sherman Lea was reelected mayor with 52.3% of the vote, with Bowers, running then as an independent, at 46.7%.
In terms of raw votes, Biden took 26,773 while Lea polled 21,552. Trump took 15,607 while Bowers took 19,247.
For the sake of argument, let’s assume that Biden and Trump get the same vote totals in Roanoke this November as they did four years ago.
Four years ago, for whatever reason, 5,221 Biden voters didn’t vote for the Democratic candidate for mayor. There’s always some voter dropoff as we get to lower offices on the ballot. Was that the problem, or were some voters not keen on Lea? If the dropoff was unique to Lea, then Cobb may not need to worry because he’s a different person. However, if that many Democratic presidential voters were simply disinterested in the mayor’s race and came just to vote for Biden (or against Trump) and then leave, that could be a problem. Cobb is already being squeezed in another way: How many votes might Cobb lose among Black voters, normally a strong Democratic base, to Moon Reynolds?
Notice this, too: Four years ago Bowers polled more votes than Trump did. Now that Bowers is running as a Republican, will there be some Trump voters who were reluctant to vote for Bowers last time when he was simply a “a former Democrat,” and now feel more comfortable voting for him as a Republican? Conversely, will there be some voters who were quite fine voting for Bowers as an independent, but who will be hesitant to do so now that he’s joined the party of Trump?
We don’t know the answers to any of these questions. Biden might help bring out voters for Cobb. Trump might bring out voters for Bowers. We also know that in the only example we have, a November mayoral race in Roanoke, the result didn’t exactly match the presidential one.
Roanoke: An opening on council for Republicans in a Democratic city?
Roanoke has seven candidates seeking three council seats: Democrats Phazhon Nash, Terry McGuire and Benjamin Woods; Republicans Jim Garrett and Nick Hagen; and independents Evelyn Powers and Cathy Reynolds.
The same basic dynamics that apply to the mayor’s race apply here: Barring some dramatic shift from previous elections, close to 60% of the votes Roanokers cast in the presidential race will go to the Democratic candidate. If those voters cast a straight ticket, then the three Democratic candidates will win. What if voters don’t, though? Here’s the biggest wild card at play: Voters will have up to three votes available to cast in the council race. They could vote for three Democrats. Or they could mix and match. If enough voters do that, one or more Republicans or independents could win council seats even if most Roanoke voters are casting ballots for Biden for president. For the Democratic candidates, it’s those “mostly Democratic” voters they have to worry about; for the Republicans and independents, those are the voters they need.
Let’s look at some math.
None of the three Democratic council candidates has ever run citywide in a general election before, so they all begin with low name recognition. Democratic enthusiasm for this year’s council primary was light. Two years ago, there were 4,319 voters in a four-way primary for three council seats. This year, there were 3,675 in a similar four-way primary, a decline of almost 15%, although turnout may have dropped after one of this year’s candidates announced he was quitting the race. Still, Terry McGuire’s vote total this year wasn’t much different than what he polled two years ago — except then, he finished fourth (and didn’t win a nomination), and this year, he finished second (and did).
Of the three Democratic nominees, Woods is the weakest. That’s no reflection on his abilities, just the math. In the primary, 73.2% of Democrats voted for Nash and 67.2% voted for McGuire, while only 45.1% voted for Woods. He was the least-funded of the four Democratic candidates. When I made a spot check of Roanoke precincts on primary day, I saw only signs for McGuire and Nash in some places. Woods was particularly weak in the city’s Black-majority precincts. He ran last (behind Nash, McGuire and Jamaal Jackson, who had quit the race) in Eureka Park, Forest Park, Lincoln Terrace and Summit Hills. That would seem to make him the most vulnerable Democrat on the party’s council ticket if some voters are in a mix-and-match mood.
Of the two Republican candidates, Nick Hagen seems the stronger. Two years ago, he came close to winning a council seat, finishing fourth in a nine-candidate field. His ticketmate, Jim Garrett, finished fifth in a nine-candidate field in 2014, but that was back in the era of May municipal elections. Here’s a key stat from Hagen’s campaign two years ago, which coincided with a congressional race: While Republican Ben Cline won 10,780 votes in the city in his race, Hagen took 9,232 in his council race, so there was a dropoff of 1,548 votes. In percentage terms, that’s a lower dropoff than Democrats had in the presidential race four years ago. Does this mean Republicans are more likely to stick around for the lower-ballot races than Democrats are? Or did Hagen have some unique appeal beyond Republican base voters? I don’t think we have enough data to say, but the question is an interesting one.
Let’s say the voter dropoff from Trump to Hagen this year is the same as it was from Cline to Hagen two years ago — 14.3%. If we assume, as we did above, that the Trump vote is the same in Roanoke this year, that means Hagen might come in at 13,376 votes. In the last Roanoke council races to overlap with a presidential election, in 2020, that many votes would have been enough to put Hagen in second place — and a winning position.
If Republicans can minimize ballot dropoff, it seems to me that Hagen has a good chance of winning. (It’s harder to measure Garrett’s chances since he hasn’t run in a November election before, so we don’t have November numbers to work with.)
Democrats will face some electoral pressure from candidates other than Republicans. We don’t know what kind of voter appeal independent Cathy Reynolds will have. However, Evelyn Powers has been elected five times as a Democrat to the city treasurer’s post. She was unopposed each time, so her voter appeal is unknown as well. But she is well-known. This is also the first time in 14 years that Democrats haven’t nominated a woman for a council seat. In most elections, there’s a gender gap, with women voting disproportionately Democratic. Will some women in Roanoke be inclined to cast one or two of their council ballots for Powers or Reynolds instead of a Democratic nominee? Reynolds is Black, and that could also be an electoral factor in her favor with some Roanoke voters — especially given Woods’ weakness with Black voters in the Democratic primary.
Roanoke Democrats will want to encourage straight-ticket voting to help little-known council candidates; Roanoke Republicans will want to encourage their supporters to vote a straight ticket, too, and might have an easier time of it. However, they’ll also benefit from elevating the candidacies of Powers and Reynolds — to the extent that those candidates draw votes away from Democrats, that helps Republicans. Of course, if they ran so well they outpaced the Republicans, that wouldn’t help at all.
It’s worth noting that even in the November election era, Democrats haven’t been automatic winners in Roanoke council races. In 2020, independent Moon Reynolds won one of the three seats available, with the third Democratic candidate running fifth and out of the money.
Salem: An independent tradition fading?
Council candidates in Salem have long run as independents. Hunter Holliday bucked that tradition two years ago, running as a Republican — and he led the balloting where four candidates were running for two seats.
This year, there are three seats available, and two of the four candidates are running as Republicans. Incumbent Jim Wallace, previously elected as an independent, now declares himself a Republican. Ditto John Saunders, who led the balloting in 2018 but was edged out by 11 votes two years ago.
Meanwhile, incumbent Renee Turk, currently the city’s mayor, is running again as an independent. So is Ann Marie Green, who ran and lost two years ago.
Running as Republicans could be beneficial to Saunders and Wallace. No Democrat has carried Salem in a presidential race since Jimmy Carter in 1976.
Want more political news and analysis?
I write a free weekly political newsletter that goes out every Friday afternoon —West of the Capital. Here’s some of what will be in this week’s edition:
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