Trump rally shooting could impact Minnesota politics and St. Cloud is in the center of it

ST. CLOUD — Saturday’s assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump could have long-term political implications both at the local and state level, depending on how St. Cloud voters react.

College of St. Benedict and St. John’s University Professor of Political Science James Read told the St. Cloud Times the shooting is sparking energy within the Republican party and could increase Republican turnout this election cycle.

“(Saturday’s shooting) will be charging up the base on the Republican side,” Read, who has a Ph.D. from Harvard University, said. “It's hard to see how that isn't going to happen.”

Specifically, he said increased Republican turnout could impact St. Cloud’s city council and mayoral elections, which has an above average number of candidates with 16 running for city council and six for mayor. While these elections are nonpartisan, a large candidate pool can force candidates to rely on party politics to stand out.

“One of the main challenges when you have that many candidates is ... that even though it's a nonpartisan race, people pretty much know the partisan leanings (for at least a few candidates),” Read said.

More: Minnesota leaders talk about shots What Minnesota leaders say after the shooting of former President Trump

For instance, St. Cloud’s local Republican unit — Senate District 14 Republicans — told voters at a July 10 town hall that it recommends candidates Scott Brodeen, Alex Cutchey, Bill Doll, Mark Johnson, Nicholas Lengyel and Garrett Zimmerman for the St. Cloud City Council. The local republican unit also recommended current Councilmember Mike Conway for mayor.

Similarly, Senate District 14 Democrats as of July 15 recommends candidates Tami Calhoun, Charlie Hobbs, George Hontos and Omar Podi for city council alongside Carol Lewis for mayor.

“Recommendations are given for those candidates whose campaigns seem more aligned with Republican values,” Senate District 14 Republicans wrote in a July 15 statement. “All St. Cloud public office races are nonpartisan.”

How St. Cloud voters' react to the Trump assassination attempt could have a larger impact on the state as a whole.

Matt Lindstrom, another political science professor at the College of St. Benedict and St. John’s University, said St. Cloud’s Minnesota House of Representatives seats are among the most contested in the state, and Central Minnesota voters will likely decide whether Republicans can take control of the house.

“St. Cloud plays a crucial role — an outsized role — in determining the state majority in the Minnesota Legislature,” said Lindstrom, who earned his Ph.D. from Northern Arizona University. “There's only a handful of districts that are very top, most competitive districts in the state of Minnesota, and the St. Cloud area is right up there.”

Minnesota House District 14B is expected to be among these tight races with incumbent Dan Wolgamott, Minnesota’s speaker pro tempore who received backlash after a DWI last year, being challenged by Sue Ek, who looks to enact education policy but has a history of anti-LGBTQ+ beliefs and wouldn’t commit to protecting abortion access despite saying she’d respect voters' wishes.

Wolgamott won by only 540 votes in 2022 against Republican challenger Aaron Henning.

“I continually remind students that their vote in Central Minnesota is a real powerful one,” Lindstrom said. “They can play a disproportionate role in determining the majorities of Minnesota.”

Eyes on Trump in Milwaukee

Lindstrom said it’s possible Saturday’s assassination attempt falls by the wayside and doesn’t garner attention long-term, citing a similar pattern for previous shootings. However, Read said the conversation regarding the impact of the shooting will be reliant on Trump's demeanor at the Republican National Convention being held in Milwaukee this week.

“(These conversations) disappear or they fall by the wayside,” Lindstrom said. “With shootings, whether it's in a mall, synagogue or church, (the attention eventually dies down.)”

Read said Trump has the opportunity to make it a key point of his campaign, and his rhetoric surrounding the incident will likely determine its impact on voters and how they talk about the shooting.

“Trump (could react) similarly to how President Biden did, which is saying that political violence is wrong and we're going to win this (regardless),” Read read. “There (is a small group of) people that want a very different message. They want them to say the Democrats are behind this, which is false."

Sherburne County Board of Commissioners condemn shooting

The Sherburne County Board of Commissioners 2024 Board Chair Gregg Felber issued a statement on Monday strongly condemning the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump.

“Our system of government is dependent upon the peaceful resolution of political disagreements and policy differences," Felber said. "Violence within our borders and against fellow Americans is never an answer."

He also applauded the Secret Service and first responders who were called to action Saturday.

"Finally, we ask all to join us in thought and petition for greater unity and harmony for our nation as we acknowledge our right to agree to disagree while not resorting to violence to resolve our differences,” Felber said.

Corey Schmidt covers local government for the St. Cloud Times. He can be reached at cschmidt@gannett.com.

This article originally appeared on St. Cloud Times: Trump rally shooting could impact Minnesota politics and St. Cloud is in the center of it